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Title: A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU
Author: Ramos Lobo, Raúl
Suriñach Caralt, Jordi
Keywords: Envelliment de la població
Política d'ocupació
Mobilitat laboral
Política d'emigració i immigració
Països de la Unió Europea
Population aging
Manpower policy
Labor mobility
Emigration and immigration policy
European Union countries
Issue Date: Feb-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Abstract: Due to its ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and irregular migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural, and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010. Next, we use the model to obtain medium-run migration forecasts. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but probably lower than initially expected.
Note: Versió postprint del document publicat a:
It is part of: Tijdschrift Voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 2017, vol. 108, num. 1, p. 21-35
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ISSN: 0040-747X
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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