Anàlisi macroeconòmic de Tailàndia

Abstract

(cat) Aquest treball explica l’evolució de l’economia tailandesa durant les últimes dècades. Partint d’una economia rural i agrària, l’economia asiàtica va evolucionar cap al sector manufacturer (sobretot en els sectors electrònic i automobilístic) gràcies a la inversió exterior. Aquest creixement es va veure frenat per la manca de creixement en la productivitat i la difícil política monetària per sostenir el tipus de canvi fixe de la moneda local, el baht, amb el dòlar. Tot això va portar al país a una profunda crisi que, a més a més, també va contagiar als països veïns, de la qual la recuperació en va ser un procés lent però fructuós. A dia d’avui, l’economia es troba recuperada i estable a nivell macroeconòmic però segueix mantenint el problema de la productivitat que, juntament amb la incertesa política per la que està passant el país, posa en dubte la continuació del clar creixement econòmic que ha experimentat les últimes dècades.

(eng) In this project I have analysed Thailand's key macroeconomic indicators. The first chapter defines the starting point: the original environment before experimenting the strong economic growth that has led Thailand where it is nowadays. In the first two chapters, we will see how Thailand's starts its economic evolution, leaving behind an agricultural-based economy in favour of a manufacturing one. This change, propelled by a strong foreigner investment, was slowed down due to a lack of productivity evolution and the speculation bubble surrounding Thailand's currency, the Baht. The government, in order to deal with the inability to sustain its monetary policy, was forced to devalue Thai currency, and as consequence, the country went into crisis. The crisis of 1997, which also affected more countries from South-East Asia, had a very slow recovery. However, Thailand was able to leave the crisis thanks to key decisions in terms of monetary policy and structural changes that allowed the growth of the per capita GDP. Nevertheless, Thailand experiments still nowadays very serious problems in terms of annual growth rate, while other countries such as South Korea and China were able to skip. Finally, analysing this evolution and the current economic situation of the country, this project finishes with a future overview of the macroeconomy. Despite having a healthy economy at the moment, it looks like Thailand will struggle to maintain the growth that has reached in the last decades.