Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/158594
Title: Expected shortfall computation with multiple control variates
Author: Ortiz Gracia, Luis
Keywords: Risc (Economia)
Anàlisi factorial
Gestió de cartera
Aritmètica computacional
Risk
Factor analysis
Portfolio management
Computer arithmetic
Issue Date: May-2020
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Abstract: In this work we derive an exact formula to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) value for the one-factor delta-gamma approach which, to the best of our knowledge, was still missing in the literature. We then use the one-factor delta-gamma as a control variate to estimate the ES of the multi-factor delta-gamma approach. A one-factor delta-gamma approximation is used for each risk factor appearing in the problem. Since the expected values of control variates are computed by means of an exact formula, the additional effort of computation with respect to the naive estimator of the multi-factor delta-gamma can be neglected. With this method, we achieve a considerable reduction of the variance. We have established a theorem to prove that the variance is further reduced when we use all the risk factors instead of just some of them. We show that one of the main potential applications takes place in the insurance industry regulation within the Swiss solvency test framework. We perform a model risk analysis and illustrate these results with numerical experiments.
Note: Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.125018
It is part of: Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2020, vol. 373, num. May, p. 125018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/158594
Related resource: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.125018
ISSN: 0096-3003
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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