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Title: Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case
Author: Candel, Francisco Javier
Viayna, Elisabet
Callejo, Daniel
Ramos Lobo, Raúl
San-Roman-Montero, Jesús
Barreiro, Pablo
Carretero, Maria del Mar
Kolipinski, Adam
Canora, Jesús
Zapatero, Antonio
Runken, Michael Chris
Keywords: COVID-19
Anàlisi d'impacte econòmic
Presa de decisions
Política governamental
Economic impact analysis
Decision making
Government policy
Issue Date: 15-May-2021
Publisher: MDPI
Abstract: The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.
Note: Reproducció del document publicat a:
It is part of: Viruses, 2021, vol. 13, num. 917, p. 1-16
Related resource:
ISSN: 1999-4915
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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