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|Title:||Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score.|
|Author:||Berenguer, J. (Joaquín Berenguer Lapuerta)|
Borobia, Alberto M.
Rodríguez Baño, Jesús
Bellón, José M.
Jarrín Vera, Inmaculada
Carcas Sansuán, Antonio J.
Arribas, José Ramón
Smithson Amat, Alejandro
COVID-19 Spain Study Group
COVID HULP Study Group
Teoria de la predicció
|Publisher:||BMJ Publishing Group|
|Abstract:||Participants: Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. Interventions: Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Main outcome measures: 30-day mortality. Results: Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%). Conclusions: A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.|
|Note:||Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001|
|It is part of:||Thorax, 2021, vol. 76, num. 9, p. 920-929|
|Appears in Collections:||Articles publicats en revistes (Institut d'lnvestigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL))|
Articles publicats en revistes (Medicina)
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