Calibration and future projections of Monte Perdido glacier evolution with the Open Global Glacier Model

Abstract

Glaciers are globally retreating due to climate change, and the Pyrenees mountain range is no exception. This study uses the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to explore the dynamics of the Monte Perdido glacier, one of the largest remaining glaciers in the Pyrenees. We explored three calibration approaches to assess their performances when reproducing observed volume decreases. The first approach involved mass balance calibration using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data from 2011 to 2022 and climate data from a nearby weather station. The second approach used TLS calibration with default climate data provided by OGGM (GSWP3-W5E5). The third approach used default geodetic mass balance calibration and default climate data. By comparing these calibration strategies and analysing historical data (TLS and ground penetrating radar (GPR)), we obtain insights of the applicability of the OGGM model to this small, mild conditions, Pyrenean glacier. The first calibration approach is identified as the most effective, emphasising the importance of selecting appropriate climate data and calibration methods. Additionally, we conducted future volume projections using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate a potential decrease in total ice volume ranging from 91.60% to 95.16% by 2100, depending on the scenario. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the Monte Perdido glacier’s behaviour and its response to climate change through the calibration of the OGGM, while also providing the first estimate of its future melting under different emission scenarios.