Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/46024
Title: Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations
Author: Clavería González, Óscar
Datzira, Jordi
Keywords: Turisme
Oferta i demanda
Conducta dels consumidors
Previsió econòmica
Catalunya
Anàlisi de sèries temporals
Tourism
Supply and demand
Consumer behaviour
Economic forecasting
Catalonia
Time-series analysis
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: Emerald
Abstract: Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper
Note: Versió postprint del document publicat a: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?issn=1660-5373&volume=65&issue=1&articleid=1858922&show=html
It is part of: Tourism Review, 2010, vol. 65, num. 1, p. 18-36
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/46024
ISSN: 1660-5373
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
580667.pdf96 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.