Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))

URI permanent per a aquesta col·leccióhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/54514

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Power to the People: The Local Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Communities in the UK
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Bühler, Joël; Dilek, Gokhan
Local responses to renewable energy projects range from opposition that delays or blocks deployment to active support and participation. A common narrative underlying these behaviors emphasizes economic considerations: projects that impose local externalities without delivering local benefits tend to face resistance, whereas renewable energy communities (RECs) that are formed by citizens are argued to generate more local economic value than corporate plants. This paper examines these two related claims by comparing the local economic effects of community-owned and corporate-owned renewable energy plants. Using heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences estimators and panel data for UK local authority districts, we estimate the income and employment impacts of community and corporate solar and wind projects. We find evidence of local economic benefits for some ownership–technology combinations, with substantial heterogeneity across ownership structures and technologies. Overall, the results point to a nuanced relationship between renewable energy deployment, ownership models, and local economic outcomes
Municipal tax incentives and solar PV adoption: Causal evidence from Catalonia
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Teixidó-Figueras, Jordi; Van Raalte, Lynn
This paper estimates the causal impact of municipal property tax exemptions on the adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Catalonia. Using a balanced monthly panel of municipalities from 2015 to 2022, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with staggered policy implementation. The exemption increased installed PV capacity by 36% and led to roughly one additional installation per treated municipality per month. Focusing on residential installations, we find that 80% of the tax exempt installations would have occurred even without the policy, implying an implicit abatement cost of €142 per tonne of CO2. Heterogeneity analysis shows limited variation across structural and socioeconomic contexts. Overall, the policy was moderately effective but only partially efficient, suggesting that more targeted design could enhance its cost-effectiveness.
Taking Back Control of Urban Water Distribution: The Effect of Remunicipalization on Water Bills
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Bühler, Joël
Governments around the globe are considering taking back direct control as an option to reform privatized public services, particularly on the local level. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that remunicipalization of urban water leads to price reductions of about 3-6 cents per cubic meter in larger municipalities, but the effect does not extend to smaller municipalities. Given our finding of unchanged water usage, these reductions in large municipalities translate directly to consumers’ bills. As remunicipalization typically happens when a contract with a private firm expires, we investigate whether the threat of competition or remunicipalization arising from expiring contracts itself also leads to price reductions. After contract expiry without remunicipalization, water prices decline by 2-3 cents per cubic meter. Thus, while remunicipalization reduces prices particularly in larger municipalities, threats at contract expiry have a smaller, but more uniform price effect.
A Light Bulb Goes On: Religiosity and the Adoption of electrical Technologies in 19th century France
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Tsiachtsiras, Georgios; Petralia, Sergio; Miguélez, Ernest; Moreno Serrano, Rosina
This article studies how anti-scientific sentiment can shape the direction of technological change, focusing on the tensions between the Catholic Church and the French Republic in late nineteenth-century France. We construct a novel geo-referenced database of French patents filed at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (1838-1960) and combine it with historical measures of religiosity at the departmental level. We find that areas with higher shares of refractory clergy, those who refused to swear allegiance to the revolutionary state, produced significantly fewer electrical patents between 1890 and 1914. Crucially, this negative relationship does not extend to other technological fields or to overall patenting activity. Neither education nor migration explains this pattern. We also show that early electrical patenting predicts later activity in computer and communication technologies, consistent with path-dependent technological development. These findings suggest that conservative institutional environments did not suppress innovation broadly, but selectively discouraged disruptive technologies that challenged established norms, with consequences that persisted for decades.
The Geography of the Green Transition: Performance, Vulnerabilities and Opportunities
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Ritter, Sebastian; Royuela Mora, Vicente
As the EU races to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, regional disparities in transition progress threaten to leave some territories behind. We introduce the Regional Green Transition Performance Index (RGTP), a novel composite measure capturing progress across seven pillars (environmental; energy; circular economy and waste; sustainable development; just transition; innovation and policy; and transport and mobility) for 232 European NUTS2 regions over 14 years. Drawing on 31 indicators, we map spatial patterns and dynamic processes. Furthermore, we argue that the green transition acts as a structural force whose potential effects on regional development can be expressed along two axes: vulnerability and opportunity. (...)
Credit portfolio losses with climate change factors
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Tubella Domingo, Oriol; Ortiz García, Luis
In this work, we consider the problem of computing risk measures of a credit portfolio via the evaluation of the characteristic function of the loss variable. We propose a new methodology to obtain the characteristic function of the loss distribution when the dependence structure is driven by either the Gaussian or t-copula model. This new approach relies on a quadrature method based on Shannon wavelets and the cardinal sine function. It works out extremely well for the one-factor and the multi-factor model when, in the second case, a moderate number of risk factors are considered. Then, we compare with some of the state-of-the-art methods to perform the same task, and we get much better results in terms of execution time and accuray. As quadrature methods are affected by the curse of dimensionality, we further introduce a simulation approach to evaluate the characteristic function in the case of multi-factor models with many risk factors. The simulation is based on lowdiscrepancy Monte Carlo sequences. A broad set of numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of our methodology. We conclude our work with a real portfolio where the exposures are taken from the European Investment Bank, and we incorporate climate change-related factors into the analysis. This study highlights the practical relevance of our methodology for assessing credit risk in portfolios exposed to emerging environmental challenges.
Comportamiento predictivo de los analistas institucionales españoles durante los últimos 25 años
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Pons Novell, Jordi
En el actual entorno de incertidumbre económica, las predicciones de los agentes adquieren especial relevancia. El presente estudio se centra en las predicciones de eventos fijos realizadas por un panel de agentes institucionales durante los últimos 25 años. Las instituciones elaboran previsiones para la economía española con horizontes decrecientes durante un período de dos años, realizando revisiones cada dos meses durante este proceso. A partir de las predicciones de crecimiento económico, inflación y desempleo, así como de sus revisiones posteriores, construimos un panel de datos con los errores de previsión y la magnitud de las revisiones, tanto en relación con su previsión previa como con la previsión de consenso, entendida como la media de las previsiones. (.../...)
Integrating Road Safety and Environmental Impact via Telematics: Modeling Traffic Accident Risk Using Vehicle Emissions
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Yanez, Juan Sebastian; Guillén, Montserrat; Roszkowsk, Paulina; Nielsen, Jens Perch
Private vehicles harm public health by contributing to air pollution and traffic accidents, the leading cause of death among young adults. Despite these risks, drivers often ignore speed limits, while society increasingly prioritizes environmental protection. This tension between personal habits and collective responsibility highlights the urgent need for strategies to promote safer driving practices. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel approach to evaluating road crash risk using air pollutants as exposure measures, so drivers are simultaneously encouraged to reduce their environmental footprint and mitigate their road crash risk. We use a rich dataset of over 1,500 at-fault crash-related claims recorded over two years provided by an insurance company, merged with detailed telematics driving data for individual vehicles. We show that available emission factor models enable the integration of emission-based exposure measures to model road crash risk. Then, we provide empirical evidence that incorporating behavioral telematics data makes pollutant-driven models as efficient as traditional distance-driven ones. Our proposition has the potential to enhance road safety and reduce air pollution by directly linking environmentally conscious driving practices with reducing road crash risks.
Proportionality between allocations in asset management
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Vega Baquero, Juan David; Santolino, Miguel
Asset allocation refers to deciding the optimal participation of each asset within a portfolio. Therefore, these participations are a composition, and compositional methods should be used to treat the data and perform analysis over it. When trying to find relationships between parts of a composition, proportions have shown to be more suitable than correlations. In this paper, using a previous proportionality index as starting point, two new indexes are proposed and all of them are used to analyze the asset allocation in a portfolio composed of five stocks from the IBEX 35 (the Spanish stock market index). Results shed light on the connection between volatility, allocations and their proportionality.
Fewer seats, resilient frequencies: Impacts of large-scale High-Speed Rail liberalisation on air transport supply
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Albalate, Daniel, 1980-; Gragera Lladó, Albert; Suau-Sánchez, Pere
This paper examines the liberalisation of high-speed rail (HSR) as a driver of intermodal competition in long-distance passenger transport. While previous research has primarily focused on the effects of HSR infrastructure deployment on aviation, less is known about how opening HSR markets to new entrants reshapes this competition. Drawing on the Spanish HSR liberalisation in 2021, we are the first to evaluate the causal effects of a large-scale liberalisation on competing air transport supply. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find significant long-term reductions in airline seat supply (10- 16%), but limited impact on frequencies. We then uncover two mechanisms underlying these results. First, airlines’ primary response was to down-gauge aircraft. Second, a market share emerged from the need of legacy carriers to preserve frequencies to feed their hub. Our results underscore the broad and significant implications of liberalisation for intermodal substitution.
Refrigeration, Diets and Human Health: Evidence from Ghana
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Ntsiful, Enoch; Cohen, François
Little is known about household-level interventions to strengthen household resilience to food insecurity. Rapid electrification could enable refrigeration and transform how food is stored, prepared, and consumed. We provide the first causal evidence on how access to refrigeration affects food insecurity and dietary quality in a low-income country. Our identification exploits appliance breakdowns, comparing households with functioning and broken refrigerators purchased at the same time and similar prices. Losing access increases food insecurity by one third and reduces consumption of animal-sourced foods, lowering intake of vitamin B12. Refrigeration is an overlooked lever to improve diets and reduce micronutrient deficiencies.
Hot Property: A Spatial Analysis of Temperature and Housing Prices in Spain
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Fernández-Pérez, Adrián; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
This study examines the impact of extreme temperatures on housing price dynamics in Spain, considering both direct and indirect effects across geographic space. Using panel data at the provincial level and a spatial econometric model, we find that an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 35 °C (95ºF) over the past year is significantly associated with a decline in both sale and rental prices within the affected province. However, we also identify a positive indirect effect on housing markets in more distant provinces, particularly in the rental sector, consistent with a pattern of temperature-induced house price premium in cooler regions. A central methodological contribution of this paper is the use of spatial econometric techniques to detect and quantify these spillover effects. By explicitly modelling spatial dependence, we can disentangle local impacts from broader geographic transmission mechanisms, revealing how climate stressors reshape housing demand across regions. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate-related factors into real estate market analysis and the design of adaptation policies.
Partisan Climate Action, Utility Interests, and Policy Choice in the U.S. Power Sector
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Peña Tello, Witson
This paper investigates how U.S. gubernatorial partisanship and electric utility interests jointly shape the adoption and stringency of three widely used electricity-sector climate policies: greenhouse gas cap-and-trade, emissions standards, and renewable portfolio standards. Using panel data for 48 states over 29 years, this study applies difference-indifferences and regression discontinuity designs that exploit within-state partisan alternation and quasi-random variation from close gubernatorial elections. The results indicate that Democratic governorships associate with higher probabilities of policy adoption and greater stringency than Republican ones. However, these partisan effects attenuate in states with fossil-intensive utility capacity and strengthen in renewable-rich states, particularly for discretionary and mandatory renewable portfolio standards. This work extends the empirical political economy literature by comparing instrument choice and stringency across three major electricity-sector climate policies and by evaluating how utility sector composition and reelection incentives moderate or amplify partisan influence. The findings highlight that electricity-sector decarbonization strategies need to account for both environmental externalities and the local political-economic conditions that shape feasible policy options.
Environmental degradation, income and economic complexity: Evidence from European countries
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Sorić, Petar
Recent energy tensions caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to the pressure that global warming exerts for an energy transition towards low-carbon energy sources. This study combines two time series approaches with the aim of delving deeper into the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth and to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, using information from 20 European countries between 2007 and 2021. Overall, the obtained results suggest the existence of a N-shaped nexus between emissions and income per capita. Additionally, we evaluated stability of this nexus and the potential existence of an asymmetric adjustment. In most countries we find asymmetries in the adjustment of emissions to positive and negative changes in income, but not so much in economic complexity. However, notable differences are observed between countries, which could be indicating their differentiated phase in the EKC curve.
Britaly? Identifying euro area historical analogues to the UK’s 2022 bond market shock
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Andrada-Félix, Julián; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
Comparing the UK’s 2022 sovereign debt crisis with earlier European examples is crucial for a holistic understanding of how such crises emerge and evolve to better comprehend the warning signs of sovereign distress and the importance of coherent and credible economic governance. Both crises were marked by sudden and severe shifts in investor confidence. The UK government’s “mini budget” announcement on September 23, 2022, sent yields on UK gilts soaring at a daily rate not seen since the 1990s. Similarly, official disclosure by Papandreou’s government regarding the actual state of Greece’s public finances on October 20, 2009, caused daily sovereign debt yields in some euro area countries to rise to levels not seen since joining the euro. The primary objective of this paper is to conduct a comparative econometric analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market, with the goal of identifying past episodes similar to the turmoil experienced in the UK government bond market during September–October 2022. This comparative perspective aims to provide valuable insights for future crisis prevention in an increasingly interconnected global financial system. Specifically, we use daily data on 10-year government bond yields from January 3, 2000, to June 30, 2023, and apply both univariate and multivariate nearest neighbours’ techniques. (.../...)
Migrant Inventors and Environmental-Related Technologies: A Life Cycle Perspective in US MSAs
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Viola, Salvatore; Moreno Serrano, Rosina; Miguélez, Ernest; Consoli, Davide; Perruchas, François
One important factor in addressing climate change is the development and deployment of environmental-related, or green, technologies (GT). Environmental-related technologies are distinct, requiring specific conditions to be developed which vary depending on their relative level of technological maturity. Recent studies have focused on the role of migrant inventors in creating these conditions and spurring regional diversification into new technological domains. Regional diversification helps regions avoid lock-in and even escape fossil fuel dependencies. While the contribution of migrants to science and innovation is well documented, less attention has been given to migrants and diversification, especially in the case of GT and along the technological life cycle. In this study, we investigate the role of US-based migrant inventors in regional GT diversification using patent data from the USPTO between the year 1990 and 2012. We find that migrant inventors are positively associated with regional GT diversification, partly as a result of their previous patenting experience as well as the specializations of their countries of origin. With regard to the technological life cycle, while geographically diffused technologies rely on corresponding inventor experience, emergent technological diversification benefits from inventors from specialized countries. These findings highlight the bridging role that migrant inventors in international knowledge transfer and their importance in regional diversification in particular environmental-related technologies.
Economic Complexity and the Resilience-Sustainability Strategy for Climate Change
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Bistuer, David; Chuliá Soler, Helena; Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario
Previous development studies have documented a positive relationship between economic complexity and better environmental outcomes, as well as highlighted policy avenues that could leverage economic complexity as a roadmap for decarbonization and green growth. We build on this perspective by empirically demonstrating—using recent advances in explainable and causal machine learning—that economic complexity is also meaningfully linked to climate change resilience. Specifically, we show that more complex economies tend to be less vulnerable to climate change due to their stronger adaptive and coping capacities. These capacities are evidenced by stronger institutions, better long-term health outcomes, and, notably, a higher proportion of people employed in R&D. Our findings also reveal a positive association between exposure to climate risk due to geography and complexity, but only in cases of extreme exposure. While exposure to climate change itself is beyond the reach of policy intervention, vulnerability is not. By using an economic complexity framework combined with investments in knowledge intensive intangibles and large-scale long-term health interventions, policymakers can align the seemingly divergent goals of climate resilience and decarbonization, which is crucial, especially for developing nations.
Trickle-Down Economics, Merit, and Redistribution: An Experiment with the Poorest and Richest US Americans
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Brunetti, Roberto; Grimalda, Gianluca; Marino, Maria
Despite growing income inequality, demand for redistribution has remained stagnant, which is puzzling for the poor. We investigate whether attitudes toward “trickle-down” economics and fairness affect redistribution demand. We involve US residents from the bottom and top 20% of the income distribution (N = 2, 346) in experimental redistributive decisions from high-income real-life entrepreneurs to low-income recipients. We find that entrepreneurs’ activities possibly generating trickle-down effects, such as employing 1,000 workers, are irrelevant to redistribution. Conversely, the desire to sanction the “undeserving poor” and, less importantly, to reward the “deserving rich” significantly affect redistribution. High-income and low-income participants’ decisions follow surprisingly similar patterns
Language of Instruction, Bilingualism, and Neighbourhood Quality: Do Local Language Skills Matter?
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Di Paolo, Antonio
This paper investigates whether acquiring proficiency in a local language improves neighbourhood quality in a bilingual region, focusing on Catalonia, Spain. The analysis uses rich microdata linked to census-tract measures of neighbourhood quality, including average local income, unemployment benefits per capita, and a composite socioeconomic status index. OLS results show that oral proficiency in Catalan among native Spanish speakers is associated with better residential outcomes. To address potential endogeneity of language skills, I exploit the implementation of a language-ineducation policy that introduced Catalan as a medium of instruction, promoting Catalan-Spanish bilingualism among native Spanish speakers. Specifically, I construct an instrument consisting in the interaction between years of language exposure during compulsory education and an indicator for native Spanish speakers, considering that the reform did not affect oral Catalan proficiency among native Catalan speakers and assuming cohort trends unrelated to the reform are homogeneous across language groups. IV/TSLS estimates reveal no causal effect of increased oral Catalan skills, induced by school language exposure among native Spanish speakers, on any measure of neighbourhood quality. Falsification exercises aimed at validating the main identification assumption, along with robustness checks addressing potential confounders and alternative mechanisms, support the identification strategy and reinforce the main findings. Overall, the results suggest that although the reform significantly raised oral Catalan proficiency among native Spanish speakers, this variation in language skills does not translate into changes in residential sorting or neighbourhood quality.
Bilateral trade between China and the European Union: Emerging challenges and opportunities in a shifting global landscape
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Borsi, Mihály Tamás
This paper examines trade relations between China and the European Union from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the role of trade policy uncertainty alongside key economic and institutional factors. Using an extended gravity model, the results show that China’s economic growth is a dominant driver of trade flows. The study introduces a novel proxy for China’s trade policy uncertainty, finding that it significantly influences bilateral trade. Results are robust to different specifications. Additionally, the results indicate that while non-eurozone EU countries demonstrate higher trade flows with China, the immediate impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on EU trade remains limited. Given the anticipatory nature of trade policy uncertainty and its relationship with economic growth, the findings highlight the usefulness of trade uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of shifts in trade patterns, offering valuable insights for policymakers to design strategies that promote greater stability and economic integration.

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