Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))

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Language of Instruction, Bilingualism, and Neighbourhood Quality: Do Local Language Skills Matter?
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Di Paolo, Antonio
This paper investigates whether acquiring proficiency in a local language improves neighbourhood quality in a bilingual region, focusing on Catalonia, Spain. The analysis uses rich microdata linked to census-tract measures of neighbourhood quality, including average local income, unemployment benefits per capita, and a composite socioeconomic status index. OLS results show that oral proficiency in Catalan among native Spanish speakers is associated with better residential outcomes. To address potential endogeneity of language skills, I exploit the implementation of a language-ineducation policy that introduced Catalan as a medium of instruction, promoting Catalan-Spanish bilingualism among native Spanish speakers. Specifically, I construct an instrument consisting in the interaction between years of language exposure during compulsory education and an indicator for native Spanish speakers, considering that the reform did not affect oral Catalan proficiency among native Catalan speakers and assuming cohort trends unrelated to the reform are homogeneous across language groups. IV/TSLS estimates reveal no causal effect of increased oral Catalan skills, induced by school language exposure among native Spanish speakers, on any measure of neighbourhood quality. Falsification exercises aimed at validating the main identification assumption, along with robustness checks addressing potential confounders and alternative mechanisms, support the identification strategy and reinforce the main findings. Overall, the results suggest that although the reform significantly raised oral Catalan proficiency among native Spanish speakers, this variation in language skills does not translate into changes in residential sorting or neighbourhood quality.
Bilateral trade between China and the European Union: Emerging challenges and opportunities in a shifting global landscape
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Borsi, Mihály Tamás
This paper examines trade relations between China and the European Union from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the role of trade policy uncertainty alongside key economic and institutional factors. Using an extended gravity model, the results show that China’s economic growth is a dominant driver of trade flows. The study introduces a novel proxy for China’s trade policy uncertainty, finding that it significantly influences bilateral trade. Results are robust to different specifications. Additionally, the results indicate that while non-eurozone EU countries demonstrate higher trade flows with China, the immediate impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on EU trade remains limited. Given the anticipatory nature of trade policy uncertainty and its relationship with economic growth, the findings highlight the usefulness of trade uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of shifts in trade patterns, offering valuable insights for policymakers to design strategies that promote greater stability and economic integration.
The shadow of polarization is long: trust in the government and independent institutions after 142 government changes
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Guirola-Abenza, Luis M.; Rivero, Gonzalo
We study how political polarization impacts trust in the government and independent institutions. We gather microdata from 27 countries over three decades and identify 142 government changes. For each of these events, we run a difference in differences design comparing left and right-wing supporters to identify the effect on trust caused by a particular party controlling the executive. The estimated effect ranges from 0 to 2.1 standard deviations, and is systematically larger when party polarization is stronger– this variable alone explains 72% of the variation. The effect propagates onto trust in the European Central Bank and other institutions outside government control. Examining the mechanism, we find evidence consistent with a) lack of knowledge about independence and b) that elections under high polarization are high-stakes events affecting multiple dimensions, including subjective wellbeing, and trust toward the political system as a whole.
Deprivations rarely come alone. Multidimensional poverty dynamics in Europe
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Suppa, Nicolai
This paper proposes a framework to analyse micro-level dynamics inherent to multidimensional poverty measures. Specifically, I use differences in deprivation transition probabilities between multidimensionally poor and non-poor people, to analyse how deprivations couple over time. Advantages of this approach include that it (i) summarises relevant mechanisms, (ii) requires only short-run panel data and (iii) is suitable for monitoring purposes. Using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 20+ countries over 2016–2020, I find that deprivations tend to couple over time. Implications include that coordinated policy programmes seem critical to overcome entrenched and prevent future deprivations.
Bilingual Education and Identity
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Caminal Echevarría, Ramon; Di Paolo, Antonio; Ferrer i Carbonell, Ada
We present new evidence on the impact of a reform that introduced Catalan-Spanish bilingual education in Catalonia on identity formation. Specifically, we revisit the findings of Clots-Figueras and Masella (2013, The Economic Journal) by examining how exposure to Catalan as medium of instruction affects identity and political preferences. To do so, we use more recent data from repeated cross-sections and multiple alternative sources. Furthermore, we explore an overlooked dimension of identity: self-identification language. At the aggregate level, we find a small but negative effect of bilingual education on the likelihood of identifying as exclusively Catalan. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and falsification tests. However, they differ significantly from those of Clots-Figueras and Masella. Our replication of their results reveals a lack of robustness, primarily due to their definitions of identity, as well as to other aspects of their model specification. Our analysis of heterogeneous effects shows that the small negative impact of the reform on identifying as “only Catalan” is entirely driven by individuals from non-Catalan backgrounds, whether in terms of native language or parental origins. For this group, exposure to bilingual education also reduces the likelihood of adopting Catalan as the language of self-identification and support for the independence of Catalonia. These findings suggest that the language-in-education reform might have triggered a backlash effect.
Captive or non-captive: Knowledge sourcing strategies and innovation performance
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Tojeiro Rivero, Damián; Moreno Serrano, Rosina
Prior literature has argued that, although both captive knowledge sourcing (CKS) and non-captive knowledge sourcing (NCKS) are effective strategies for enhancing firm innovativeness, the former plays a more defined role in determining the likelihood of a firm achieving product innovations. However, we contend that the focus should not only be on the decision to innovate but, more importantly, on the profitability firms derive from such innovations. Given that knowledge acquired from external sources can provide firms with ideas that differ from their existing competencies, NCKS may be more advantageous, as the resulting innovations are likely to exhibit higher levels of novelty. Additionally, we examine the complementarity or substitutability between CKS and NCKS in driving innovation. Our findings for Spanish firms suggest that NCKS yields greater benefits than CKS. Moreover, adopting both strategies simultaneously does not result in higher benefits; instead, a minimum threshold of NCKS, above the median, is necessary to realize observable gains. This indicates that firms must demonstrate a substantial level of commitment to NCKS to effectively exploit its potential for generating returns from their most novel innovations.
El Clasico of Housing: Bubbles in Madrid and Barcelona’s Real Estate Markets
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Fernández Pérez, Adrian; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
This paper contributes to the housing bubble literature by analysing rental and sales price dynamics in Spain’s two largest urban centres—Madrid and Barcelona—between May 2007 and December 2024. Using monthly data from Idealista.com, Spain’s leading real estate platform, we detect the presence of price bubbles in both markets, assess their key determinants, and explore contagion effects across cities and segments. Our results show that while only a few bubbles emerged, they were of substantial duration. We also find evidence of contagion, with rental bubbles consistently preceding sales bubbles, underscoring the pivotal role of rental markets in driving price surges. Among the key determinants, higher hotel stays are associated with a reduced probability of housing bubbles, suggesting that more hotel-based tourists may help stabilise real estate markets in both urban centres. Rising interest rates and the availability of housing certificates are also linked to lower bubble risk. Conversely, increasing resident numbers significantly raise the likelihood of positive bubbles, whereas higher unemployment dampens it. These findings offer critical insights for housing policy in major urban areas.
Effects of Tourism on Community Economic Well-Being and Heterogeneity of Local Destinations: Evidence From a Developed Tourist Market
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Colomés Barbarà, Lluís; Mazaira-Font, Ferran
Unease with tourism has spread to many areas with large populations, and local governments are implementing or discussing measures to reduce tourist intensity. The metropolitan-based narrative about the negative externalities of tourism has often been projected onto all types of destinations. Our research empirically analyzes whether the effects on community well-being are as homogeneous as anti-tourism narratives assume, in a heterogeneous and mature tourism market. We find that in both larger and smaller municipalities, tourism increases inequality, although to a limited extent. However, the effects on per capita income and on housing rental prices differ greatly. Government should avoid a "one-size-fits-all" approach when considering tourism policies.
Income inequality and economic growth in Asian countries
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar
This study examines income inequality across 53 Asian countries from 1990 to 2021, focusing on the application of the Kuznets’ curve theory. This hypothesis states an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between economic growth and inequality, suggesting an initial increase followed by a decline in income disparity as GDP per capita growth. We analyzed data accruing the share of income of the Top 1% income holders of each country, by regions and for the continent as a whole. We employed a fixed-effects panel model with GDP per capita, squared GDP per capita and cubed GDP per capita as explanatory variables. Our results include mixed evidence of the completion of the curve: Asia overall supports the Kuznets’ curve however the regional analysis reveal differences. While East and South Asia present with significant U-shaped relationship patterns, Central Asia shows an inverted N-shaped relationship. Referencing to West and Southeast Asia, they demonstrate similar U-shaped trends however not statistically significant. This research contributes by offering region-specific insights into inequality dynamics relating to economic growth to provide policymakers with tools to target interventions for inclusive development across Asian countries.
Examining the transmission of credit and liquidity risks: A network analysis for EMU sovereign debt markets
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Fernández Rodríguez, Fernando, 1954-; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area revealed that European Monetary Union (EMU) government bond markets interact in a highly synchronised network and that risk particular to a country or sovereign bond yield component cannot be appropriately evaluated in isolation without taking potential risk transmission effects from other countries or sovereign bond yield omponents into consideration. Therefore, in clear contrast with the empirical evidence based on Granger-causality tests, the main contribution of the paper comes from the analysis of the transmission of credit and liquidity risk by examining a broad network of relations between the two risks in nine EMU sovereign debt markets from 2008 to 2018, explicitly examining the net pairwise connectedness among all the possible pairs formed from the 18 sovereign risk indicators. The results of this analysis indicate that, on average, risk transmission goes mostly from credit to liquidity risk (both within and across countries). This finding is crucial for policymakers because it indicates that rising credit risk is the primary driver of yield spread increases, and actions to strengthen the budgetary position of euro-area economies are essential. Finally, our results indicate that sovereign risk transmission is time-varying. Although both liquidity and credit risk were transmitted across countries during the Global Financial Crisis, we mainly observed the transmission of liquidity risk across them during the European sovereign debt crisis, suggesting that investors prefer sovereign debt that is easier to trade when market liquidity dries up.
Privatisation and Remunicipalisation of Urban Water in Catalonia: Between Monopolisation, State and the Commons
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Bühler, Joël
We study how the privatisation of urban water is being challenged in Catalonia, which has a high proportion of private management and a high degree of monopolisation in the water contract market, compared to Spain. We use detailed and up-to-date municipal data to study the dynamics of monopolisation and remunicipalisation. We find that remunicipalisation, rather than potential competition for contracts, is a remedy against monopolisation. Inter-municipal cooperation in Catalonia facilitated the implementation of remunicipalisation in smaller municipalities. In addition, we analyse the democratisation of water management following remunicipalisation and find that progress was modest, both in Catalonia and in Spain.
China’s Import Competition, Innovation Strategies, and the Role of Unions
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Matano, Alessia; Naticchioni, Paolo
This paper investigates the relationship between China’s import competition and the innovation strategies of domestic firms. Using firm level data from Italy spanning 20052010 and employing IV fixed effects estimation techniques, we find that the impact of China’s import competition on innovation varies depending on the type of goods imported (intermediate vs. final). Specifically, imports of final goods boost both product and process innovation, while imports of intermediate goods reduce both. Additionally, we extend the analysis to consider the role of unions in moderating these responses. We find that, in unionized firms, imports' impact on innovation is mitigated, specifically to protect workers' employment prospects.
Does It Take More Than One Village? The Effect of Inter-Municipal Cooperation on Waste Separation
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Bühler, Joël
Municipalities increasingly cooperate with one another to improve their public services. In this study, we estimate the causal effect of Inter-Municipal Cooperation (IMC) on the environmental performance of waste collection in Catalonia. Using a difference-indifferences framework, we find that municipalities moving into IMC decrease nonseparated waste per capita and increase the share of waste separation. However, when taking into account potential selection into treatment, a causal effect is present only in a sub-period after a strong hike in the landfill tax, and particularly for municipalities switching after this tax hike. This points to IMC’s potential to use technical capability and economies of scale for a more pronounced and rapid reaction, enhancing the effectiveness of higher-level policy. In contrast, absent the landfill tax, IMC seems to have offered limited improvement in environmental performance, suggesting at most a secondary role for internalization of local environmental spillovers..
Coal’s Last Breath: Examining Health Impacts in England’s Coal’s Phase Out
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) Sharma, Aayushi; Maynou Pujolràs, Laia; Teixidó-Figueras, Jordi
This study used a natural experiment to determine how a nation-wide coal phase out strategy affects air pollution and in-turn health outcomes (physical and mental health) in England. The introduction of the Carbon Tax policy in the United Kingdom in 2013, precipitated the closure of multiple coal plants, highlighting the imperative for further investigation into its implications. Using a Staggered Difference-in-Difference estimator, we show coal plant closures improve air quality and related health outcomes. In particular, we find coal plant closures reduces hospital admissions among respiratory patients, and asthma (among adults). Additionally, they reduce mortality among the most deprived under the age of 75 years, but not among the non-deprived population. Finally, we also document improvements on mortality for mental and behavioral diseases. This results, we show, are not driven by endogenous migration flows. These findings contribute to the literature on the health effects of pollution by focusing on the effects of removing, rather than adding, pollution sources that in this case result from more stringent climate policies.
School Entry Age Policy and Adolescent Risk–Taking
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) López-Mayán, Cristina; Montresor, Giulia; Nicodemo, Catia
This paper investigates the impact of the school entry age policy on adolescent risk–taking behaviors. The policy mandates that children begin primary education in the year they turn six, creating relative age differences within cohorts due to a January 1st cutoff date. Using data from the Spanish School Survey on Drug Use, we analyze a comprehensive set of risky behaviors, including substance use, gambling, gaming, internet use, and sexual activity among students in the early adolescence in compulsory education. Employing an empirical strategy that compares students born in December (young–forgrade) and January (old–for–grade) while controlling for potential confounders, we find that young–for–grade students are less likely to engage in risky behaviors. Findings are consistent across various robustness checks. Further analysis suggests that both absolute age differences and educational cycle effects contribute to these findings. Gender specific patterns reveal distinct effects for boys and girls, while school type shows limited variation. Notably, most behavioral differences diminish by late adolescence in high school. This research broadens our understanding of the non–academic impacts of school entry age policies contributing to the literature on education policy and adolescent development
The impact of the female advantage in education on the family
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) Rodríguez González, Ana
Men’s historical advantage in educational attainment has recently been reversed in many countries. I study the implications for family formation of the new female advantage in education in the marriage market, exploiting a Finnish school reform that increased women’s relative level of education. I analyze the reduced-form relationship between marriage market exposure to the reform and family outcomes. I find decreases in marriage and fertility in marriage markets with a larger female educational advantage. These results are mostly driven by the increasing mismatch between the educational distributions of men and women, and might have negative consequences for low-educated men’s mental health.
Joining Forces or Going Solo? The Political and Economic Dynamics of Intermunicipal Cooperation
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Pano, Esther; Sebö, Marianna
The emergence and dynamics of inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) remain complex despite extensive research. This study examines why and when municipalities engage in IMC across multiple services. Using data from Catalonia spanning a decade, we analyze both static and dynamic factors influencing IMC adoption. Our generalized linear mixed model reveals that population size, fiscal constraints, and political participation significantly affect cooperation patterns. Economies of scale are particularly relevant for services where cooperation is frequent, while their influence diminishes as economies of density are involved. The dynamic analysis using Cox proportional hazards models indicates that high public debt and low turnout accelerate IMC adoption. These findings enhance the understanding of IMC drivers and highlight the importance of distinguishing between service-specific, organizational, and political factors that influence the existence of cooperation versus those driving its timing. Our analysis across eight services confirms that no single delivery service approach fits all scenarios.
Community-based outcomes of interlocal cooperation in social services
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Bühler, Joël; Pano, Esther
We investigate the effects of interlocal cooperation in social services. We focus on three poverty-related outcomes: Guaranteed minimum income, housing rental support, and diagnosis of children at risk. We had a rich database on municipalities in Catalonia. First, we apply a quasi-experimental strategy and then perform robustness analyses using panel models. Our most robust results indicate that cooperation has a positive and significant effect on rental assistance, but has no significant effects on guaranteed minimum income. This suggests that cooperation may be effective in improving community-based outcomes where these are determined by services which involve more complex tasks and procedures.
Redistribution and development in Latin America: A quantile regression approach
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) Clavería González, Óscar
This study examines the relationship between redistributive efforts and human development in 12 Latin American countries over the period 2000–2021. With the aim of evaluating the link between both variables throughout the distribution the analysis is based on quantile regression. Overall, the results suggest that greater redistribution is associated with higher development. This result holds for all ranges of the distribution and is robust to different specifications. The analysis of the redistributive effect of taxes and government transfers is extended to the different dimensions of development— health, education and economy—, finding that education is the component that is most significantly affected by increases in redistribution. Positive coefficients are also obtained for the other two components, although they are only significant at the centre of the distribution in the case of life expectancy, and at high levels of per capita income.
Taking the Pulse of Fiscal Distress: Inflation, Depreciation, and Crises
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2024) Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario; Valencia, Oscar M.
This study offers novel monthly estimates of the latent probability of fiscal crises for 163 countries, from January 1970 to December 2023. These indicators are constructed with minimal data requirements on prices and exchange rates and serve as a global early warning system for fiscal risk. The probabilities are estimated using a Random Forest model within a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework, trained on manually compiled fiscal crisis events. Using these indicators, we test nine hypotheses on the effects of country characteristics, time periods, and policy choices on the probability of fiscal crises. Countries with inflation-targeting regimes, on average, experience lower fiscal distress. Fiscal rules reduce the probability of crises while higher debt levels increase their likelihood. Our findings are particularly relevant for developing countries, where fiscal risk is higher than in advanced economies, even after controlling for policy choices and country-specific characteristics.

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