Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/96752
Title: Data pre-processing for neural network-based forecasting: does it really matter?
Author: Clavería González, Óscar
Monte Moreno, Enric
Torra Porras, Salvador
Keywords: Previsió econòmica
Desenvolupament econòmic
Xarxes neuronals (Informàtica)
Economic forecasting
Economic development
Neural networks (Computer science)
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the forecasting performance of neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to predict tourist demand: multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function and Elman neural networks. The structure of the networks is based on a multiple-output approach. We use official statistical data of inbound international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain) and compare the forecasting accuracy of four processing methods for the input vector of the networks: levels, growth rates, seasonally adjusted levels and seasonally adjusted growth rates. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different inputs for each visitor market and for different forecasting horizons, we obtain significantly better forecasts with levels than with growth rates. We also find that seasonally adjusted series significantly improve the forecasting performance of the networks, which hints at the significance of deseasonalizing the time series when using neural networks with forecasting purposes. These results reveal that, when using seasonal data, neural networks performance can be significantly improved by working directly with seasonally adjusted levels.
Note: Versió postprint del document publicat a: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3846/20294913.2015.1070772
It is part of: Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 2017, vol. 23, num. 5 ; p.709-725
Related resource: http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2015.1070772
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/96752
ISSN: 2029-4913
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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