Expected Shortfall computation with multiple control variates1 Luis Ortiz-Gracia2 Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Spain3 E-mail: luis.ortiz-gracia@ub.edu4 Abstract5 In this work we derive an exact formula to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) value for the one-6 factor delta-gamma approach which, to the best of our knowledge, was still missing in the literature.7 We then use the one-factor delta-gamma as a control variate to estimate the ES of the multi-factor8 delta-gamma approach. A one-factor delta-gamma approximation is used for each risk factor appear-9 ing in the problem. Since the expected values of control variates are computed by means of an exact10 formula, the additional effort of computation with respect to the naive estimator of the multi-factor11 delta-gamma can be neglected. With this method, we achieve a considerable reduction of the variance.12 We have established a theorem to prove that the variance is further reduced when we use all the risk13 factors instead of just some of them. We show that one of the main potential applications takes place14 in the insurance industry regulation within the Swiss solvency test framework. We perform a model15 risk analysis and illustrate these results with numerical experiments.16 Key words. Swiss solvency test, market risk, nonlinear portfolio, delta-gamma approximation,17 Expected Shortfall, exact formula, control variates18 AMS subject classifications. 62P05, 65C05, 65C5019 1 Introduction20 A classical but still important problem in market risk management is the estimation of a profit and21 loss distribution of a portfolio over a specified time horizon and the associated risk measures. Value-22 at-Risk (VaR) has become an important measure for estimating and managing portfolio market risk.23 VaR is defined as a certain quantile of the change in value of a portfolio during a specified holding24 period. While the basic concept of VaR is simple, many complications can arise in practical use. An25 important complication is caused by nonlinearity in the portfolio payoff structure. This problem arises26 for all portfolios that include assets with nonlinear payoffs, such as option positions. For such nonlinear27 portfolios, VaR cannot be computed directly from a risk factor distribution. Instead, the risk factor28 distribution first needs to be converted into a profit and loss distribution for the portfolio. VaR is then29 computed from this profit and loss distribution. The Basel Committee of Banking Supervision initiated a30 fundamental review of the trading book regime (see [2, 3]), beginning with an assessment of those things31 that went wrong during the financial turmoil. The revised standards for minimum capital requirements32 for market risk were established in [4]. The Committee has focused, among other things, on moving33 from VaR to the ES for measuring the portfolio risk. ES is a coherent measure (in the sense of [1]) that34 takes into account the tail of the portfolio loss distribution beyond the VaR value.35 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is typically used to calculate these risk measures, first simulating36 changes in the risk factors of a portfolio, then the portfolio is evaluated at each new price and the change37 in value of the portfolio is estimated. This method is known as full revaluation. However, accurate VaR38 and ES estimates with a full revaluation method, are obtained at the cost of a considerable computational39 effort, since there might be a large number of instruments in the portfolio and when the confidence level is40 high, a large number of simulations may be required to obtain accurate estimates of the tail probability.41 In the present work, we adopt the delta-gamma approximation [6, 11, 18] as an alternative approach42 to the full revaluation method. This approach is based on the assumption that the change in portfolio43 1 value is a quadratic function of the changes in the risk factors. This method is sometimes called partial44 MC, since the only part of the procedure that involves simulation is the one related to the price change.45 This fact makes the delta-gamma method much more competitive from the computational standpoint.46 The boost in terms of CPU time is at the cost of less accurate values when measuring the risk, since it47 is a second order Taylor approximation to the true change in portfolio value (the suitability of the delta-48 gamma approach is studied in [21]). Typically, the changes in the risk factors are assumed to be normally49 distributed. The assumption of normality is found, for instance, in the insurance industry. As pointed50 out by [15, 16, 19], the standard market model of the Swiss solvency test (SST), in force since 2011,51 defines the capital required by a Swiss insurance company to absorb negative financial scenarios. The52 capital requirement imposed by the Swiss financial market supervisory authority (FINMA) corresponds53 to the ES calculated at 99% confidence level by means of a delta-gamma approach where the risk factors54 follow a multivariate normal distribution, and this computation is generally done by means of Monte55 Carlo simulation. Thus, the possibility of rare events such as financial crises are ignored under the56 multivariate normal framework. As stated in [19], the FINMA has amended the model to take into57 account the possibility of exceptionally high losses in financial markets, so we consider this model as well58 in the present work. Other potential applications of the delta-gamma approach appear in counterparty59 risk, and more precisely, to speed up the calculation of initial margin payments as suggested by [20]. It60 has also been employed to compute the VaR value of straddles, strangles and spread options in [7].61 The delta-gamma method has also been studied in [8, 19] and [21] within the context of Fourier62 inversion methods, avoiding this way MC simulation. The probability density function (PDF) and the63 cumulative distribution function (CDF) are recovered through Fourier inversion from the characteristic64 function of the random variable representing the change in value of the portfolio. However, as pointed65 out in [8], for certain holding periods the risk measures are difficult to estimate by means of Fourier66 inversion, since numerical errors may hamper the accurate estimation of the PDF. Further, when a67 numerical method is employed, then some parameters have to be fixed, and that is generally a trial and68 error problem. The implementation of a MC method is usually a more simple task, and this is why69 simulation is often preferred by financial companies.70 The main contributions of this work within the delta-gamma framework are the following.71 • We derive an exact formula to calculate the ES value for the one-factor delta-gamma approach72 under the assumption of normal changes in the risk factor. While the density function of the one-73 factor delta-gamma approach was already known in closed-form (see for instance [13] or [21]), an74 exact formula for estimating the ES value was still missing. We therefore overcome the numerical75 problems stated before in the presence of a single risk factor when using Fourier inversion.76 • We extend the one-factor exact formula to the one-factor SST framework. We provide an exact77 formula for the ES where extreme scenarios are taken into account, and we give the mathematical78 expression that relates the VaR value with and without extreme scenarios.79 • We propose a conservative estimation of the ES for separable and multivariate portfolios. This80 is achieved by means of the exact formula and the subadditivity property of the ES. For those81 portfolios involving only one asset, like for instance the trading strategies described in [17], the82 exact formula can be applied straightforwardly.83 • We use the one-factor delta-gamma as a control variate to estimate the ES of the multi-factor delta-84 gamma approach in the normal case as well as when extreme scenarios are considered. A one-factor85 delta-gamma approximation is used for each risk factor appearing in the financial context. Since86 the expected values of control variates are computed by means of an exact formula, the additional87 effort of computation with respect to the naive estimator of the multi-factor delta-gamma can be88 neglected. We achieve a considerable variance reduction factor (VRF). This fact will be shown89 in the numerical experiments. It is worth remarking that the closed-form formula given for the90 univariate case is a key aspect for the successful application of the variance reduction method put91 forward in this work.92 • When we use a control variates technique in the context of multi-factor delta-gamma, we can93 potentially include as many control variates as risk factors appearing in the problem. So we have94 2 to make a decision on which factor(s) should be used. We prove in Theorem 1 that the variance is95 reduced (or at least equal) when we use all the risk factors as control variates. To the best of our96 knowledge, this is a new contribution to the literature. We illustrate this result in the numerical97 experiments part.98 Other authors have used control variates with a rather different approach in the context of portfolio99 losses for computing the VaR value (see for instance [11]) or valuation of derivatives (like [9] for basket100 and Asian options).101 The paper is organized as follows. We introduce the delta-gamma approach in Section 1.1. We derive102 an exact formula for a non-central chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom in Section 2. That103 formula will be used in Section 3 to obtain an exact formula for the ES under the one-factor delta-gamma104 approach. We extend the computation of the ES with an exact formula to the SST model in Section105 4. The problem of multiple control variates is put forward in Section 5, and the numerical experiments,106 along with an analysis of model risk, are presented in Section 6. Finally, Section 7 concludes.107 1.1 The delta-gamma approach108 Suppose the current value of a portfolio is V (t), the holding period is ∆t, and the value of the portfolio109 at time t+ ∆t is V (t+ ∆t). The change in the portfolio value during the holding period is ∆V , where110 ∆V = V (t+ ∆t)− V (t). The VaR value of ∆V at a confidence level α, is given by qα, where,111 P(∆V < qα) = α. In practice, ∆t ranges from one day to two weeks and α ∈ (0, 1) is close to 1. By definition, the ES risk112 measure at confidence level α is given by,113 ESα(∆V ) = E (∆V |∆V > qα) , or, alternatively,114 ESα(∆V ) = 1 1− α ∫ +∞ qα xf∆V (x)dx, (1) where f∆V is the PDF of ∆V .115 We assume that there are p risk factors and that S(t) = (S1(t), . . . , Sp(t)) T denotes the value of these116 factors at time t. Define ∆S = S(t+ ∆t)− S(t) to be the change in the risk factors during the interval117 [t, t+ ∆t]. Then, the delta-gamma approximation is given by,118 ∆V ' ∆Vγ = Θ∆t+ δT∆S + 1 2 ∆STΓ∆S, (2) where Θ = ∂V∂t , δi = ∂V ∂Si , Γi,j = ∂2V ∂Si∂Sj , are called the Greeks, and all partial derivatives are being119 evaluated at S(t). Further, ∆S is governed by a normal distribution with mean zero and covariance120 matrix Σ. Observe that in the univariate case (p = 1), we have,121 ∆Vγ = n∑ i=1 xi ∂vi ∂t ∆t+ n∑ i=1 xi ∂vi ∂S ∆S + 1 2 n∑ i=1 xi ∂2vi ∂S2 (∆S)2, (3) where n represents the number of assets in the portfolio, xi is the amount of asset i and vi the value of122 asset i. In this particular case,123 Θ = n∑ i=1 xi ∂vi ∂t , δ = n∑ i=1 xi ∂vi ∂S , Γ = n∑ i=1 xi ∂2vi ∂S2 . 3 2 Non-central chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom124 We devote this section to the study of the non-central chi-squared distributions with one degree of125 freedom, since as we will see in the next section, they are the building blocks of the delta-gamma126 approach. More precisely, if X is a random variable that follows a non-central chi-squared distribution127 with one degree of freedom and non-centrality parameter ζ, we will compute its CDF, its VaR value128 and give a closed-form expression for the ES. The starting point is the PDF of X, given by (see [14] for129 details),130 fζ(x) = e− 1 2 (x+ζ) √ 2pix cosh (√ ζx ) , (4) where,131 cosh (√ ζx ) = e √ ζx + e− √ ζx 2 , x ∈ (0,+∞), ζ > 0. We can derive the CDF of X,132 Fζ(x) = ∫ x 0 fζ(y)dy, x ∈ (0,+∞), ζ > 0, by integrating,133 Fζ(x) = ∫ x 0 e− 1 2 (y+ζ) √ 2piy · e √ ζy + e− √ ζy 2 dy, x ∈ (0,+∞), ζ > 0. If we make the change of variables y = t2 we obtain,134 Fζ(x) = Φ (√ x− √ ζ ) + Φ (√ x+ √ ζ ) − 1, x ∈ (0,+∞), ζ > 0, or, alternatively,135 Fζ(x) = Φ (√ x− √ ζ ) − Φ ( −√x− √ ζ ) , x ∈ (0,+∞), ζ > 0, where Φ is the CDF of the standard normal distribution.136 Let qζα be the VaR value of X calculated at the confidence level α ∈ (0, 1), this is Fζ(qζα) = α. We137 derive a closed-form formula for the ES of X by means of its density (4) and expression (1),138 ESα(X) = 1 1− α ∫ +∞ qζα xfζ(x)dx. Proposition 1. The ES at confidence level α of a non-central chi-squared random variable X with one139 degree of freedom and non-centrality parameter ζ is,140 ESα(X) = 1 1− α [ (ζ + 1)(1− α) + φ (√ qζα + √ ζ )((√ qζα + √ ζ ) e2 √ qζαζ + √ qζα − √ ζ )] , where φ denotes the PDF of the standard normal distribution.141 Proof. If we make the change of variables x = t2 then,142 ESα(X) = 1 1− α ∫ +∞ √ qζα t2 ( φ ( t− √ ζ ) + φ ( −t− √ ζ )) dt. If we define,143 g(t) = (ζ + 1) ( Φ ( t− √ ζ ) + Φ ( t+ √ ζ ) − 1 ) − φ ( t+ √ ζ ) · (( t+ √ ζ ) e2 √ ζt + t− √ ζ ) , then,144 4 ESα(X) = 1 1− α ( g (+∞)− g (√ qζα )) . Finally, we conclude by using that,145 Fζ(q ζ α) = Φ (√ qζα − √ ζ ) + Φ (√ qζα + √ ζ ) − 1 = α. 146 3 Closed-form Expected Shortfall in the delta-gamma framework147 In this section we derive a closed formula to calculate the ES of ∆Vγ for a single risk factor. We will148 use that formula for each risk factor to reduce the variance of the multi-factor delta-gamma approach149 estimator. The details will be given in Section 5 and Section 6. We follow the results provided in [21],150 where it is established the link between the density function of ∆Vγ and the density function of a non-151 central chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom, called Q, with non-centrality parameter ζ152 and density function fQ. It is worth mentioning that the density function of the one-factor delta-gamma153 approach was also given in [13]. More precisely,154 f∆Vγ (x) = 2 |λ|fQ ( 2 λ (x−Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) , (5) where λ = ΓC2, d = δC,C = σ √ ∆tS(t), µ¯Q = −12 d 2 λ and ζ = ( d λ )2 . For completeness, we give at the155 beginning of Section 6 a brief explanation on the selection of the variance Σ = C2 considered to simulate156 the price change of individual risk factors ∆Sj , j = 1, . . . , p. Further, the VaR value of ∆Vγ is given by,157 qα = { λ 2 q ζ α + µ¯Q + Θ∆t, if λ > 0, λ 2 q ζ 1−α + µ¯Q + Θ∆t, if λ < 0, (6) where the quantiles qζα and q ζ 1−α represent the VaR value of Q at confidence level α and 1−α respectively.158 In order to derive the expression for the ES, we differentiate between positive and negative λ. We159 start by assuming that λ > 0. In this case, it is shown in [21] that f∆Vγ is either unimodal or bimodal160 in its domain of definition (µ¯Q + Θ∆t,+∞). If we take into account (5) the ES is given by,161 ESα(∆Vγ) = 1 1− α ∫ +∞ qα xf∆Vγ (x)dx = 1 1− α · 2 λ ∫ +∞ qα xfQ ( 2 λ (x−Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) dx. If we make the change of variables y = 2λ (x−Θ∆t− µ¯Q), then by (6) we get,162 ESα(∆Vγ) = 1 1− α ∫ +∞ qζα ( λ 2 y + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q ) fQ(y)dy = λ 2 ESα(Q) + 1 1− α · (Θ∆t+ µ¯Q) ∫ +∞ qζα fQ(y)dy, where ESα(Q) denotes the Expected Shortfall of the random variable Q. Finally, taking into account163 that,164 ∫ +∞ qζα fQ(y)dy = 1− α, we conclude that,165 ESα(∆Vγ) = λ 2 ESα(Q) + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q. We now consider λ < 0. In this case, it is shown in [21] that f∆Vγ is either unimodal or bimodal in166 its domain of definition (−∞, µ¯Q + Θ∆t), where x = µ¯Q + Θ∆t is a vertical asymptote for f∆Vγ . If we167 take that observation into account then by (5) the ES is given by,168 5 ESα(∆Vγ) = 1 1− α ∫ µ¯Q+Θ∆t qα xf∆Vγ (x)dx = −1 1− α · 2 λ ∫ µ¯Q+Θ∆t qα xfQ ( 2 λ (x−Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) dx. If we make the change of variables y = 2λ (x−Θ∆t− µ¯Q), then by (6) we get,169 ESα(∆Vγ) = −1 1− α ∫ 0 qζ1−α ( λ 2 y + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q ) fQ(y)dy = 1 1− α [ λ 2 ∫ qζ1−α 0 yfQ(y)dy + (Θ∆t+ µ¯Q) ∫ qζ1−α 0 fQ(y)dy ] . Taking into account that,170 ∫ qζ1−α 0 fQ(y)dy = 1− α, then,171 ESα(∆Vγ) = 1 1− α · λ 2 ∫ qζ1−α 0 yfQ(y)dy + (Θ∆t+ µ¯Q) . (7) Since Q is a non-central chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom and non-centrality parameter172 ζ, we follow the same steps as in Section 2 to obtain,173 ∫ qζ1−α 0 yfQ(y)dy = g (√ qζ1−α ) − g(0) = (ζ + 1) ( Φ (√ qζ1−α − √ ζ ) + Φ (√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) − 1 ) − φ (√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) · · ((√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) e 2 √ qζ1−αζ + √ qζ1−α − √ ζ ) = (ζ + 1) (1− α)− φ (√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) · ((√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) e 2 √ qζ1−αζ + √ qζ1−α − √ ζ ) . (8) Then, by (7) and (8),174 ESα(∆Vγ) = λ 2 · 1 1− α [ (ζ + 1) (1− α)− φ (√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) · ((√ qζ1−α + √ ζ ) e 2 √ qζ1−αζ + √ qζ1−α − √ ζ )] + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q. We can summarize in the following proposition the value of the ES for all values of λ.175 Proposition 2. The ES at confidence level α of the delta-gamma approximation ∆Vγ reads,176 ESα(∆Vγ) = λ 2 · 1 1− α [ (ζ + 1) (1− α) + sign(λ)φ (√ qζ + √ ζ ) · ((√ qζ + √ ζ ) e2 √ qζζ + √ qζ − √ ζ )] + + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q, (9) where sign(λ) is the sign function (takes the value 1 for positive λ and −1 for negative λ) and qζ = qζα177 for positive λ and qζ = qζ1−α for negative λ.178 Proof. The result follows from the expressions above.179 6 3.1 Quantile computation180 Looking at formula (9), the only required computation for obtaining the ES value is the quantile qζ . The quantile qζ satisfies Fζ ( qζ ) = η, where η = α for positive λ, η = 1 − α for negative λ, and Fζ is the distribution function of a non-central chi-squared random variable with one degree of freedom and non-centrality parameter ζ. We define, Gζ(x) = Fζ(x)− η, where,181 Fζ(x) = Φ (√ x− √ ζ ) − Φ ( −√x− √ ζ ) , x ∈ (0,+∞), ζ > 0, as seen in Section 2. We observe that,182 Gζ(0) = Fζ(0)− η = −η < 0, and, Gζ(ζ) = Fζ(ζ)− η = Φ(0)− Φ ( −2 √ ζ ) − η = Φ ( 2 √ ζ ) − η − 1 2 . Since G′ζ(x) > 0 for all x ∈ (0,+∞), there is a unique solution of Gζ(x) = 0 in the interval [0, ζ] provided183 that Φ ( 2 √ ζ )−η− 12 > 0. In that case, we can safely apply a bisection method to the function Gζ(x) with184 initial interval [0, ζ]. When Φ ( 2 √ ζ )−η− 12 < 0, then the unique root is located at some point beyond ζ185 and we apply a Newton-Raphson method with initial seed ζ (we prefer not to use the Newton-Raphson186 method in the first case to avoid negative values in subsequent iterations).187 4 Shocks in the risk factors: the SST model188 In this section we derive a closed formula to calculate the ES of the change in value of the portfolio for a189 single risk factor under the SST model. To do this, we consider multiple scenarios, which occur with small190 probabilities and are mutually exclusive. To be more precise, the new model considers l + 1 scenarios191 with associated probabilities of occurrence p0, p1, . . . , pl, where p0 stands for the normal scenario and,192 l∑ i=0 pi = 1. For scenarios i ≥ 1 the change in value of the portfolio V is modified by the additive term,193 si := ∆S T i Γ∆Si + δ T∆Si, where ∆Si represents the change in value of the risk factors corresponding to the scenario i ≥ 1. In194 summary, the scenario-adjusted value of ∆V is given by,195 ∆V sγ := ∆Vγ + S, (10) where ∆Vγ is given in (2), S = ∑l i=0 Iisi and the indicator random variables Ii select which scenario196 occurs, i.e., with probability pi, Ii = 1 and Ik = 0 for k 6= i (this is, the random variables are mutually197 exclusive) and the indicator variables Ii are independent of the risk factors. Let fS be the density198 function of S, then,199 fS(x) = p0δ(x) + l∑ i=1 piδ(x− si), where δ stands for the Dirac delta function. Since ∆Vγ and S are assumed to be independent, then the200 density of ∆V sγ is the convolution product between both densities,201 7 f∆V sγ (x) = ( f∆Vγ ∗ fS ) (x) = ∫ R f∆Vγ (y)fS(x− y)dy = ∫ R f∆Vγ (y) [ p0δ(x− y) + l∑ i=1 piδ(x− y − si) ] dy, where f∆Vγ is considered to be zero outside its domain. Finally, if we take into account that δ(x) = δ(−x)202 and, if we define s0 = 0, then,203 f∆V sγ (x) = l∑ i=0 pif∆Vγ (x− si) = 2 |λ| l∑ i=0 pifQ ( 2 λ (x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) , (11) where, for the second equality in (11), we have used the expression (5). It is worth remarking that the204 first equality in (11) is also given in [19]. If we restrict ourselves to the single risk factor case, then we205 will show that an exact formula for the ES can be developed also in this case.206 Let us assume that λ > 0 in (11). In this case, since the domain of definition of f∆Vγ (x − si) is207 (si + µ¯Q + Θ∆t,+∞), then the distribution function F∆V sγ of ∆V sγ reads,208 F∆V sγ (x) = l∑ i=0 pi ∫ x si+Θ∆t+µ¯Q f∆Vγ (y − si)dy = 2 λ l∑ i=0 pi ∫ x si+Θ∆t+µ¯Q fQ ( 2 λ (y − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) dy. If we make the change of variables z = 2λ(y − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q), then,209 F∆V sγ (x) = l∑ i=0 pi ∫ 2 λ (x−si−Θ∆t−µ¯Q) 0 fQ(z)dz = l∑ i=0 piFζ ( 2 λ (x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) . If qsα represents the VaR of ∆V s γ at confidence level α then it can be obtained by solving the equation210 F∆V sγ (q s α) = α, this is,211 l∑ i=0 piFζ ( 2 λ (qsα − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) = α. We now use the VaR value to compute the ES,212 ESα(∆V s γ ) = 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi ∫ +∞ qsα xf∆Vγ (x− si)dx = 2 λ · 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi ∫ +∞ qsα xfQ( 2 λ (x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q))dx. If we make the change of variables z = 2λ(x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q), then,213 ESα(∆V s γ ) = 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi [ λ 2 ∫ ue le zfQ(z)dz + (si + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q) ∫ ue le fQ(z)dz ] , where le = 2 λ(q s α − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) and ue = +∞. Finally, if we use the function g defined in Section 2214 we end up with,215 ESα(∆V s γ ) = 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi [ λ 2 ( ζ + 1− g (√ le )) + (si + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q) (1− Fζ(le)) ] . Let us assume that λ < 0 in (11). In this case, since the domain of definition of f∆Vγ (x − si) is216 (−∞, si + µ¯Q + Θ∆t), then the distribution function F∆V sγ of ∆V sγ reads,217 8 F∆V sγ (x) = ∫ x −∞ f∆V sγ (y)dy = l∑ i=0 pi ∫ x −∞ f∆Vγ (y−si)dy = − 2 λ l∑ i=0 pi ∫ x −∞ fQ ( 2 λ (y − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) dy. If we make the change of variables z = 2λ(y − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q), then,218 F∆V sγ (x) = l∑ i=0 pi ∫ +∞ 2 λ (x−si−Θ∆t−µ¯Q) fQ(z)dz = l∑ i=0 pi [ 1− Fζ ( 2 λ (x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) )] = 1− l∑ i=0 piFζ ( 2 λ (x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) . If qsα represents the VaR of ∆V s γ at confidence level α then it can be obtained by solving the equation219 F∆V sγ (q s α) = α, this is,220 l∑ i=0 piFζ ( 2 λ (qsα − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) = 1− α. (12) We now use the VaR value to compute the ES,221 ESα(∆V s γ ) = 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi ∫ si+Θ∆t+µ¯Q qsα xf∆Vγ (x− si)dx = − 2 λ · 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi ∫ si+Θ∆t+µ¯Q qsα xfQ( 2 λ (x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q))dx. If we make the change of variables z = 2λ(x− si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q), then,222 ESα(∆V s γ ) = 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi [ λ 2 ∫ u¯e l¯e zfQ(z)dz + (si + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q) ∫ u¯e l¯e fQ(z)dz ] , where l¯e = 0 and u¯e = 2 λ(q s α − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q). Finally, if we use the function g defined in Section 2 we223 end up with,224 ESα(∆V s γ ) = 1 1− α l∑ i=0 pi [ λ 2 g (√ u¯e ) + (si + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q)Fζ(u¯e) ] . 5 Multiple control variates225 As pointed out by [10], the method of control variates is one of the most effective methods for improving226 the efficiency of MC simulation. The method takes advantage of the information about the errors in227 estimates of known quantities to reduce the error in an estimate of an unknown quantity. For the time228 being, we consider a unique control variate and the new estimator,229 E∗ = E − c1(E1 − τ1), where E stands for the naive MC estimator, E1 is the control variate with known expected value τ1, and230 c1 is the optimal coefficient minimizing the variance of E ∗, this is,231 c1 = Cov(E,E1) Var(E1) , (13) where Cov and Var are the covariance and variance, respectively. If we use the optimal c1 in (13) then,232 9 Var(E∗) = ( 1− Corr(E,E1)2 ) Var(E), (14) where Corr(E,E1) denotes the correlation between E and E1. Thus, the variance of the new estimator233 is dramatically reduced with respect to the variance of the naive estimator when the correlation between234 E and E1 is close to one (in absolute value). As pointed out in [9], the coefficient c1 can be estimated235 by using a pilot run with a smaller sample size or by using the full sample of the simulation. The236 former approach leads to an unbiased estimate while the second one has a bias which is negligible when237 the sample size is large (the bias is of order O(1/n)). In this work, we will use the full sample of the238 simulation for estimating c1, since the sample size will be large.239 Let us now consider multiple control variates. The general formulae for an arbitrary number d of240 control variates are taken from [12]. The estimator in this case reads,241 E∗ = E − cT (E − τ), where cT = (c1, . . . , cd) is the vector of coefficients minimizing the variance of E ∗ and E = (E1, . . . , Ed)242 is the vector of control variates with known expected value τ = (τ1, . . . , τd). Then, c is selected as the243 optimal value of the problem,244 min Var(E∗) = Var(E)− 2cTC + cTDc, (15) where C is the d-dimensional vector of covariances of E with each of the components of E , and D is245 the covariance matrix of E . If we assume that D is a non-singular matrix, then the first and second246 order optimality conditions of the minimization problem (15) imply that there is an optimal and unique247 solution given by c = D−1C with optimal value,248 Var(E∗) = (1−R2)Var(E), where,249 R2 = CTD−1C Var(E) . (16) In particular, we can easily calculate the variance reduction factor achieved when using two control250 variates (this is, for d = 2) and compare it with the variance reduction factor obtained if we use a unique251 control variate. Thus,252 C = ( Cov(E,E1) Cov(E,E2) ) , D = ( Var(E1) Cov(E1, E2) Cov(E1, E2) Var(E2) ) , and,253 c = 1 |D| · ( Var(E2) −Cov(E1, E2) −Cov(E1, E2) Var(E1) ) C. (17) With the optimal solution c = (c1, c2) T in (17), we have,254 R2 = 1 |D|VaR(E) · C T ( Var(E2) −Cov(E1, E2) −Cov(E1, E2) Var(E1) ) C = Var(E)Var(E1)Var(E2) |D|VaR(E) · ( Corr(E,E1) 2 + Corr(E,E2) 2 − 2Corr(E,E1)Corr(E,E2)Corr(E1, E2) ) = Corr(E,E1) 2 + Corr(E,E2) 2 − 2Corr(E,E1)Corr(E,E2)Corr(E1, E2) 1− Corr(E1, E2)2 , (18) since |D| = 1− Corr(E1, E2)2Var(E1)Var(E2).255 Within the delta-gamma framework, we can choose as many control variates as risk factors, so the256 natural and first question arising at this stage is whether it would be better to use one or two control257 10 variates for measuring the risk with a greater reduction of variance. We answer this question in the258 following lemma.259 Lemma 1. If we define R21 = Corr(E,E1) 2 as in expression (14) and, R22 = Corr(E,E1) 2 + Corr(E,E2) 2 − 2Corr(E,E1)Corr(E,E2)Corr(E1, E2) 1− Corr(E1, E2)2 , as in (18) then R22 ≥ R21, and the equality holds if and only if Corr(E,E1)Corr(E1, E2)−Corr(E,E2) = 0.260 Proof. Indeed, R22 ≥ R21 if and only if,261 Corr(E,E1) 2 +Corr(E,E2) 2−2Corr(E,E1)Corr(E,E2)Corr(E1, E2) ≥ (1−Corr(E1, E2)2)Corr(E,E1)2, this is,262 (Corr(E,E1)Corr(E1, E2)− Corr(E,E2))2 ≥ 0, and this completes the proof.263 Note that the same result applies if we select E2 instead of E1. We generalize the result of Lemma264 1 to an arbitrary dimension.265 Theorem 1. Let Dl and Cl be the matrix D and vector C, respectively, of expression (16) corre-266 sponding to the first l control variates. Let bTl−1 = (Cov(E1, El),Cov(E2, El), . . . ,Cov(El−1, El)) and267 C(l) = Cov(E,El) the last component of vector Cl. If we define,268 R2l = CTl D−1l Cl Var(E) , then, R2k ≥ R2k−1 for all k ≥ 2, and the equality holds if and only if bTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1 − C(k) = 0.269 Proof. We can write matrix Dk in block form,270 Dk = (Dk−1 bk−1 bTk−1 Var(Ek) ) , with inverse matrix (see for instance [22] for details),271 D−1k = (D−1k−1 + 1FD−1k−1bk−1bTk−1D−1k−1 − 1FD−1k−1bk−1 − 1F bTk−1D−1k−1 1F ) , where F = Var(Ek)− bTk−1D−1k−1bk−1.272 We have that R2k ≥ R2k−1 if and only if,273 CTk D−1k Ck ≥ CTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1. (19) After some basic algebraic manipulation we get,274 CTk D−1k Ck = CTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1 + 1 F C T k−1D−1k−1bk−1bTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1 − 1 F C T k−1D−1k−1bk−1C(k) − 1F b T k−1D−1k−1Ck−1C(k) + 1 F C(k) 2. Expression (19) is satisfied if and only if,275 1 F C T k−1D−1k−1bk−1bTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1 − 1 F C T k−1D−1k−1bk−1C(k)− 1 F b T k−1D−1k−1Ck−1C(k) + 1 F C(k) 2 ≥ 0. 11 If we use that (D−1k−1)T = D−1k−1 then we derive an equivalent expression,276 1 F ( bTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1 )2 − 2F bTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1C(k) + 1F C(k)2 ≥ 0, which holds if and only if,277 ( bTk−1D−1k−1Ck−1 − C(k) )2 ≥ 0, provided that F > 0. Indeed, F , called the Schur complement of Dk−1 in Dk, is positive semi-definite,278 since every covariance matrix is positive semi-definite and by [23] Dk is positive semi-definite if and only279 if Dk−1 and F are positive semi-definite.280 Note that Lemma 1 is a particular case of Theorem 1 for k = 2.281 6 Expected Shortfall and control variates282 In this section we focus our attention in the efficient computation of the ES value under the multi-factor283 delta-gamma approach given in (2). We aim at calculating the aforementioned risk measure by means284 of an improved version of crude MC simulation. For this purpose, we consider each risk factor of the285 delta-gamma approximation as a control variate to reduce the variance. We will perform a consistency286 check in Section 6.1 for the one-factor delta-gamma approach. In Section 6.2 we will consider a European287 call option where the asset and the interest rate are the risk factors and only one control variate will be288 used. Finally, we calculate the ES in Section 6.3 for a basket put option, which has a payoff depending289 on two assets. In this last case, we illustrate the results obtained in Theorem 1 by using a different290 number of control variates in separated examples.291 We will assume the geometric Brownian motion (GBM), also called Black-Scholes model, for option292 valuation. The GBM model assumes that log ( Sj(t+∆t) Sj(t) ) is normally distributed with mean µj∆t and293 standard deviation σj √ ∆t, for j = 1 . . . , p and S(t) = (S1(t), . . . , Sp(t)). Thus, there seems to be an294 inconsistency between the valuation model (this is GBM) and the model used for path simulation (this295 is the normal distribution introduced in Section 1.1). However, for small ∆t (as the holding period is),296 Sj(t+ ∆t) Sj(t) = 1 + ∆Sj Sj(t) ' exp ( ∆Sj Sj(t) ) , which is log-normally distributed if ∆Sj is normally distributed. In that case, ∆Sj follows a normal297 distribution with mean µj∆t and standard deviation Sj(t) · σj √ ∆t. A common assumption within the298 delta-gamma framework consists of approximating the mean by zero and we therefore have that ∆Sj299 follows a normal distribution with mean zero and variance Σ = ( σj √ ∆tSj(t) )2 .300 6.1 Consistency check of the one-factor delta-gamma approach301 We consider in this section the one-factor delta-gamma approach given in (3). Under this assumption,302 we can compute the ES value by means of the exact formula of Proposition 2, once the quantile value qζ303 has been obtained following the steps given in Section 3.1. In all of our experiments we fix a tolerance304 error of 10−6 for obtaining the quantile. As pointed out in Section 3.1, when the solution qζ is located305 within the interval [0, ζ], we can apply a bisection method. We use a faster version of the classical306 bisection method called Brent’s method (see [5]) which combines the bisection procedure with linear or307 quadratic inverse interpolation1.308 Our first test portfolio is taken from [8]. It consists of one short European call and half a short309 European put with maturity 60 days (T = 60/365). The underlying asset at time t is S(t) = 100310 with volatility level σ = 0.3, interest rate r = 0.1 and strike price K = 101 for each option. The311 pricing formula and the Greeks are detailed in Appendix A. We consider different holding periods ∆t,312 ranging from one to thirty days. We present in Table 1 the VaR and ES values obtained by means of313 1Computations were carried out in R code, and Brent’s method is implemented in the function uniroot. 12 MC simulation at confidence level α = 0.99, as well as the exact values calculated with the formula314 of Proposition 2. We show in the last column of the table, the value reported in [8]. This value was315 obtained by means of a numerical method based on the inversion of the characteristic function of ∆Vγ316 with wavelets. As it was explained in [8], for the two last cases ∆t = 10/365, 30/365 there are some317 numerical difficulties that hamper the computation of the VaR value and it is replaced by the (known)318 loss upper bound. The density plots in Figure 1 illustrate this fact (for concrete details see [8]).319 ∆t VaR (MC) VaR (Exact) ES (MC) ES (Exact) VaR (reported in [8]) 1/365 0.90311421 0.90307268 0.96464937 0.96460523 0.9038 10/365 1.70443274 1.70443156 1.70478356 1.70478331 1.7050 30/365 3.04335253 3.04335308 3.04368835 3.04306448 3.0439 Table 1: VaR and ES values corresponding to different holding periods ∆t and α = 0.99. MC values are calculated with 108 simulations of price change ∆S. We report in Table 2 the MC and exact values for VaR and ES at very high confidence levels. We320 know from [8] and [21] that the loss upper bound in this case is 1.102455.321 α VaR (MC) VaR (Exact) ES (MC) ES (Exact) 0.999 1.03507382 1.03536925 1.06162291 1.06187675 0.9999 1.09139676 1.09120022 1.09765512 1.09757439 Table 2: VaR and ES values corresponding to holding period ∆t = 1/365 and different confidence levels α = 0.999, 0.9999. MC values are calculated with 108 simulations of price change ∆S. −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 Loss D en si ty (a) ∆t = 1/365. 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Loss D en si ty (b) ∆t = 10/365. 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0 2 4 6 Loss D en si ty (c) ∆t = 30/365. Figure 1: Density plots of ∆Vγ . In the following sections we use this exact formula within the control variates technique to provide322 a solution for the multi-factor delta-gamma approach.323 6.2 Delta-gamma approach with two risk factors and one control variate324 In this section we address the efficient computation of ES within a two-factor delta-gamma framework325 by using the one-factor delta-gamma as the unique control variate. For the one-factor delta-gamma,326 the risk factor considered is the underlying asset. We therefore apply the formula of Proposition 2 to327 the one-factor delta-gamma approach with a unique risk factor (the underlying asset). We consider a328 short European call option with strike K = 101, maturity T = 60/365, S(t) = 100, r(t) = 0.1, and the329 volatility of the underlying asset is σ = 0.3, being the underlying asset and the interest rate the risk330 factors. In this case, the two-factor version of (2) reads,331 ∆Vγ = Θ∆t+ δS∆S + δr∆r + 1 2 ( ΓSS(∆S) 2 + Γrr(∆r) 2 ) + ΓSr∆S∆r, 13 where δS , δr,ΓSS ,Γrr,ΓSr are the corresponding delta and gamma Greeks of the option (observe that we332 have replaced the notation δi,Γi,j of Section 1.1 by δS , δr,ΓSS ,Γrr,ΓSr to emphasize the risk factors).333 The pricing formula and the Greeks are detailed in Appendix A. If we assume that,334 log ( r(t+ ∆t) r(t) ) ∼ N (0, σ¯2), where N (0, σ¯2) denotes a normal distribution with mean zero and variance σ¯2, then following the ar-335 gument given at the beginning of Section 6, we can assume that ∆r ∼ N (0, (σ¯r(t))2) and ∆S ∼336 N (0, (σ√∆tS(t))2). Further, we assume correlated normals with correlation parameter ρ = 0.5. Then,337 Σ = ( σ2S σSσrρ σSσrρ σ 2 r ) , is the covariance matrix, with σS = σ √ ∆tS(t), σr = σ¯r(t). We set σ¯ = 0.1. We calculate the ES with338 the naive estimator and the control variates estimator and present the results in the second and third339 column of Table 3, respectively. Two different confidence levels are considered and specified in the first340 column of the table.The holding period is set to ∆t = 1/365. The VRF achieved at confidence level341 α = 0.99 is 7.7, where it has been computed as the ratio between the variance of the naive estimator342 and the variance of the control variate estimator. The VRF is almost the double for α = 0.9.343 α ES (naive) ES (CV) VRF 0.9 1.487314 1.487373 14.1 0.99 2.129052 2.129427 7.7 Table 3: ES values for ∆t = 1/365. MC values are calculated with 108 simulations of price change ∆S. It is worth mentioning that the additional computational cost of carrying out the estimation with344 the control variate can be neglected, since the expected value of the control variate is obtained with an345 exact formula (the only numerical part involved is the quantile computation, which is done efficiently).346 6.3 Delta-gamma approach with two risk factors and two control variates347 In this section we calculate the ES within a two-factor delta-gamma framework by using the one-factor348 delta-gamma as the control variate for each risk factor. For this purpose, we consider a geometric basket349 put option with pricing formula and Greeks detailed in Appendix B. In this case, the risk factors are350 the underlying assets S1 and S2 and the parameters employed are as follows. Strike K = 100, maturity351 T = 1, S1(t) = 90, S2(t) = 110, r = 0.04, and the volatilities of the underlying assets are σ1 = 0.2 and352 σ2 = 0.3. We assume a correlation ρ = 0.75 between the assets with normal distributions for the price353 change,354 ∆S1 ∼ N (0, (σ1 √ ∆tS1(t)) 2), ∆S2 ∼ N (0, (σ2 √ ∆tS2(t)) 2). The two-factor delta-gamma approach (2) reads,355 ∆Vγ = Θ∆t+ δS1∆S1 + δS2∆S2 + 1 2 ( ΓS1S1(∆S1) 2 + ΓS2S2(∆S2) 2 ) + ΓS1S2∆S1∆S2. We consider a time horizon of ∆t = 10/365 and two different confidence levels α = 0.9 and α = 0.99.356 We present in Table 4 the VRF obtained in three different situations. We consider first a single control357 variate corresponding to the risk factor S1, in second place we perform a similar experiment with S2 and358 finally we take the two risk factors, this is, we use two control variates. The outcome is in line with the359 statement of Theorem 1, and a greater reduction variance is achieved when we employ the one-factor360 delta-gamma approach for each risk factor as a control variate.361 14 α VRF(S1) VRF (S2) VRF (S1, S2) 0.9 2.2 3.3 5.6 0.99 1.5 2.0 2.9 Table 4: VRF for different factors and confidence levels. 6.4 The SST model362 We devote this section to show how the variance reduction technique developed in this work can be363 used within the SST framework. Extreme scenarios definitions and probabilities of occurrence currently364 used in practice can be found in [15]. Further, the standard estimation of risk capital by means of the365 delta-gamma model takes into account 96 risk factors (82 market risk factors plus 14 life risk factors).366 For sake of clarity and brevity, we will consider an arbitrary set of probabilities associated to the extreme367 scenarios as well as the two-risk factor portfolio of Section 6.3 with two control variates.368 In order to appreciate the difference in risk between the normal case of Section 6.3 and the SST369 model, we use the same set of parameters as before. The extreme scenarios considered in this section370 are defined in Table 5,371 Scenario pi ∆S1 ∆S2 0 0.4 0 0 1 0.3 3 0 2 0.2 0 4 3 0.1 5 5 Table 5: Extreme scenarios. The ES values calculated at confidence levels α = 0.9, 0.99 are shown in Table 6 with the correspond-372 ing VRF presented in Table 7.373 α = 0.9 α = 0.99 ES without shocks ES with shocks ES without shocks ES with shocks Naive 2.340301 3.062148 3.236419 4.216899 CV 2.340422 3.062348 3.236460 4.217128 Table 6: ES values for ∆t = 10/365. MC values are calculated with 108 simulations of price change ∆S. α VRF (S1, S2) 0.9 4.0 0.99 2.2 Table 7: VRF for different confidence levels with shocks. We observe a considerable reduction of the variance under the SST model, although the reduction374 factor is lower with shocks than without shocks.375 6.5 Model risk376 We start by analyzing the model risk in the univariate case by comparing the VaR value qα with the377 VaR value qsα corresponding to ∆Vγ and ∆V s γ , respectively. We consider the case λ < 0 as it is the378 situation in Section 6.2 and Section 6.4. The case λ > 0 can be treated analogously. From expression379 (6) we know that,380 15 qα = λ 2 qζ1−α + µ¯Q + Θ∆t, this is,381 Fζ ( 2 λ (qα −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) = 1− α. (20) Then, from expression (20) and (12) we have,382 l∑ i=0 piFζ ( 2 λ (qsα − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) = Fζ ( 2 λ (qα −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) ) . (21) Finally, we can isolate qα from (21) and we end up with,383 qα = λ 2 F−1ζ ( l∑ i=0 piFζ ( 2 λ (qsα − si −Θ∆t− µ¯Q) )) + Θ∆t+ µ¯Q. (22) The expression (22) shows the relation between the risk measured by the VaR value within the SST model384 and the delta-gamma without shocks in the underlying factor. We consider the example in Section 6.4.385 The VaR value at confidence level α = 0.9 of the univariate version with risk factor S1 is qα = 0.859797386 without shocks and qsα = 1.294235 with shocks. We illustrate in Figure 2 the relation given in formula387 (22) for this particular example. The upper extreme of the horizontal axis corresponds to the value388 Θ∆t + µ¯Q, which is the maximum level of losses for the model without shocks. We can observe that389 under the SST model, the univariate risk grows (almost) linearly with respect to the model without390 shocks.391 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0 1 2 3 VaR Va R SS T Figure 2: Relation given by formula (22) for a range of quantiles. 6.6 Separable portfolios392 If we assume that portfolio V is separable, this is, it can be decomposed into a sum of one-dimensional393 subportfolios,394 V (S1(t), . . . , Sp(t)) = V1(S1) + · · ·+ Vp(Sp), (23) where each Vj(Sj) depends only on the risk factor Sj , then we can then decompose the p-dimensional395 delta-gamma approach (2) with normal ∆S as,396 ∆Vγ = p∑ j=1 ∆V jγ , 16 where ∆V jγ := Θj∆t + δj∆Sj + 1 2Γ j∆S2j , and Θ j = ∂Vj ∂t , δ j = ∂Vj ∂Sj , Γj = ∂2Vj ∂S2j . Since the ES enjoys the397 subadditivity property of a coherent risk measure then,398 ESα(∆Vγ) ≤ p∑ j=1 ESα(∆V j γ ), (24) where ESα(∆V j γ ) can be readily computed with the exact formula of Section 3. The same argument399 applies if we consider the scenario-adjusted ∆V sγ in (10). Thus, the right-hand-side of (24) gives us a400 conservative but fast alternative of computing the ES value avoiding MC simulation. When V is not401 separable, we can combine MC simulation for those financial instruments which depend on more than402 one risk factor, with the exact ES for the instruments written on a unique risk factor.403 7 Conclusions404 In this work we have further investigated the well-known delta-gamma approach for computing the ES405 of the change in portfolio value. We have derived an exact formula to calculate the ES value for the406 one-factor delta-gamma approach which was still missing in the literature. We then use the one-factor407 delta-gamma as a control variate to estimate the ES of the multi-factor delta-gamma approach. A408 one-factor delta-gamma approximation is used for each risk factor appearing in the problem. Since the409 expected values of control variates are computed by means of an exact formula, the additional effort410 of computation with respect to the naive estimator of the multi-factor delta-gamma can be neglected.411 With this method, we achieve a considerable VRF. We have established a theorem to prove that the412 variance is further reduced when we use all the risk factors and we have illustrated these results with413 numerical experiments. Two models have been presented for driving the dynamics of the risk factors,414 the normal model and the SST model, and we have included an analysis of model risk. Finally, we415 consider the case of separable portfolios, and we provide an upper bound of the ES by using the exact416 formula of the univariate case. The possibility of either combining control variates with other variance417 reduction techniques or using nonlinear controls has not been explored in this work, and we leave it for418 future research.419 Appendix A. Greeks for European calls and puts420 The Black-Scholes formula for pricing a European call reads,421 v(S(t), σ, T, r,K) = S(t)Φ(d1)− e−r(T−t)KΦ(d2), where,422 d1 = ln(S(t)/K) + (r + 12σ 2)(T − t) σ √ T − t , d2 = d1 − σ √ T − t. The price of the corresponding put option is,423 v(S(t), σ, T, r,K) = e−r(T−t)KΦ(−d2)− S(t)Φ(−d1). The Greeks used in Section 6.1 are,424 • theta (call), ∂v ∂t = −S(t)φ(d1)σ 2 √ T − t − rKe −r(T−t)Φ(d2), • theta (put), ∂v ∂t = −S(t)φ(d1)σ 2 √ T − t + rKe −r(T−t)Φ(−d2), 17 • delta (call), ∂v ∂S = Φ(d1), • delta (put), ∂v ∂S = −Φ(−d1), • gamma (call and put), ∂2v ∂S2 = φ(d1) S(t)σ √ T − t . The Greeks used in Section 6.2 (evaluated at t = 0) are, theta (call), delta (call), gamma (call) and,425 • rho (call), ∂v ∂r = KTe−rTΦ(d2), • Γrr (call), ∂2v ∂r2 = KTe−rT ( −TΦ(d2) + √ T σ φ(d2) ) , • ΓSr (call), ∂v2 ∂S∂r = √ T σ φ(d1). Appendix B. Greeks for the geometric basket put option426 The formula for pricing a geometric basket put option under the Black-Scholes dynamics for assets S1427 and S2 with maturity T , strike K and payoff,428 max ( K − √ S1(T )S2(T ), 0 ) , reads,429 v(Sˆ(t), σˆ, T, r,K) = e−r(T−t)KΦ(−dˆ2)− Sˆ(t)Φ(−dˆ1), where,430 dˆ1 = ln(Sˆ(t)/K) + (r + 12 σˆ 2)(T − t) σˆ √ T − t , dˆ2 = dˆ1 − σˆ √ T − t, and Sˆ(t) = √ S1(t)S2(t), σˆ = √ σ21+σ 2 2+2σ1σ2ρ 2 , being σ1 and σ2 the volatility of asset S1 and S2, respec-431 tively, ρ their correlation and r the risk-free rate.432 The Greeks used in Section 6.3 (evaluated at t = 0) are,433 • theta (put), ∂v ∂t = − Sˆ(0)φ(dˆ1)σˆ 2 √ T + rKe−rTΦ(−dˆ2), • δS1 (put), ∂v ∂S1 = −S2(0) 2Sˆ(0) Φ(−dˆ1), • δS2 (put), ∂v ∂S2 = −S1(0) 2Sˆ(0) Φ(−dˆ1), 18 • ΓS1S1 (put), ∂2v ∂S21 = S2(0) 4S1(0)Sˆ(0) ( Φ(−dˆ1) + φ(dˆ1) σˆ √ T ) , • ΓS2S2 (put), ∂2v ∂S22 = S1(0) 4S2(0)Sˆ(0) ( Φ(−dˆ1) + φ(dˆ1) σˆ √ T ) , • ΓS1S2 = ΓS2S1 (put), ∂2v ∂S1∂S2 = ∂2v ∂S2∂S1 = 1 4Sˆ(0) ( −Φ(−dˆ1) + φ(dˆ1) σˆ √ T ) . 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