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Title: | A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations |
Author: | Clavería González, Óscar Monte Moreno, Enric Torra Porras, Salvador |
Keywords: | Incertesa Dispersió (Matemàtica) Variables (Matemàtica) Uncertainty Scattering (Mathematics) Variables (Mathematics) |
Issue Date: | 2018 |
Publisher: | Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa |
Series/Report no: | [WP E-IR18/06] [WP E-AQR18/03] |
Abstract: | In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys exclusively make use of the two extreme pieces of information coming from the respondents expecting a variable to rise and to fall. With the aim of also incorporating the information coming from the share of respondents expecting a variable to remain constant, we propose a geometrical framework and use a barycentric coordinate system to generate a measure of disagreement, referred to as a discrepancy indicator. ... |
Note: | Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2018/201806.pdf |
It is part of: | IREA – Working Papers, 2018, IR18/06 AQR – Working Papers, 2018, AQR18/03 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/121329 |
ISSN: | 1136-8365 |
Appears in Collections: | AQR (Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional) – Working Papers Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA)) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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IR18-006-Claveria+Monte+Torra.pdf | 2.54 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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