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http://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Turco, Marco | - |
dc.contributor.author | Jerez, Sonia | - |
dc.contributor.author | Doblas Reyes, Francisco Javier | - |
dc.contributor.author | AghaKouchak, Amir | - |
dc.contributor.author | Llasat Botija, María del Carmen | - |
dc.contributor.author | Provenzale, A. (Antonello) | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-07-27T07:17:29Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2018-07-27T07:17:29Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2018-07-13 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2041-1723 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (~40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions. | - |
dc.format.extent | 9 p. | - |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
dc.language.iso | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Nature Publishing Group | - |
dc.relation.isformatof | Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0 | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9: 2718 | - |
dc.relation.uri | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0 | - |
dc.rights | cc-by (c) Turco, Marco et al., 2018 | - |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es | - |
dc.source | Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada) | - |
dc.subject.classification | Precipitacions (Meteorologia) | - |
dc.subject.classification | Previsió del temps | - |
dc.subject.classification | Clima | - |
dc.subject.classification | Incendis forestals | - |
dc.subject.other | Precipitations (Meteorology) | - |
dc.subject.other | Weather forecasting | - |
dc.subject.other | Climate | - |
dc.subject.other | Forest fires | - |
dc.title | Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions | - |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | - |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | - |
dc.identifier.idgrec | 681371 | - |
dc.date.updated | 2018-07-27T07:17:30Z | - |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641762/EU//ECOPOTENTIAL | - |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641811/EU//IMPREX | - |
dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU//EUCP | - |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 30006529 | - |
Appears in Collections: | Articles publicats en revistes (Institut de Recerca de l'Aigua (IdRA)) Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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681371.pdf | 3.72 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License