Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/129888
Título: A new consensus-based unemployment indicator
Autor: Clavería González, Óscar
Materia: Atur
Enquestes
Consumidors
Unemployment
Surveys
Consumers
Fecha de publicación: mar-2019
Publicado por: Taylor and Francis
Resumen: In this study we present a novel approach to measure the level of consensus among agents' expectations. The proposed framework allows us to design a positional indicator that gives the percentage of agreement between survey expectations. While other aggregation methods such as the balance, which is constructed as the difference between the percentages of respondents giving positive and negative replies, explicitly omit the neutral information, the proposed metric allows synthesizing the information coming from all response categories, including the percentage of respondents who do not expect any change. In order to assess the performance of the proposed measure of consensus, we compare its ability to track the evolution of unemployment to that of the balance in eight European countries. With this aim, we scale both measures to generate one-period ahead forecasts of the unemployment rate. We find that the consensus-based unemployment indicator outperforms the balance in all countries except Denmark and Sweden, which suggests that the level of agreement among agents' expectations is a good predictor of unemployment.
Nota: Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1497846
Es parte de: Applied Economics Letters, 2019, vol. 26, num. 10, p. 812-817
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/129888
Recurso relacionado: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2018.1497846
ISSN: 1350-4851
Aparece en las colecciones:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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