Crisis? What crisis? Economic recovery and support for independence in Catalonia

Abstract

Many political commentators and politicians claim that the effects of the Great Recession account for the surge in support for independence in Catalonia. However, available evidence does not point to a significant role having been played by the economic crisis in this political process. To enhance our understanding of the potential effects of changing economic conditions, we extend our analysis to the subsequent period, when economic recovery had taken place in Catalonia. Even in this very different economic scenario, the same results are found: that is, no evidence of a systematic relationship between changes in economic variables and variations in support for independence.