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Title: Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning.
Author: Nayagam, Shevanthi
Chan, Polin
Zhao, Kun
Sicuri, Elisa
Wang, Xiaochun
Jia, Jidong
Wei, Lai
Walsh, Nick
Rodewald, Lance E.
Zhang, Guomin
Ailing, Wang
Zhang, Lan
Chang, Joo H.
Hou, WeiWei
Qiu, Yingpeng
Sui, Binyan
Xiao, Yue
Zhuang, Hui
Thursz, M.R.
Scano, Fabio
Low-Beer, Daniel
Schwartländer, Bernhard
Wang, Yu
Hallett, Timothy B.
Keywords: Hepatitis B
Hepatitis B
Issue Date: 7-Apr-2020
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Abstract: BACKGROUND content: In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world's population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. METHODS content: A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. RESULTS content: Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested. CONCLUSIONS content: Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.
Note: Reproducció del document publicat a:
It is part of: Clinical Infectious Diseases , 2020 , vol. , num. , p. 0
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ISSN: 1058-4838
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

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