Impacte del canvi climàtic sobre el recurs eòlic

Abstract

The wind resource is a valuable engine for the renewable energies' industry. In the scope of Spain, it is competitive even with fossil fuels (it is the renewable technology with more capacity installed). However, due to climate change, wind resource may variate in locations where a wind farm is installed. This project is about the study of the variation of the wind speed (m s􀀀1) within the four scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5) presented in the last IPCC report in 2013. For the task, wind speed at 10 m from the surface database from di erent global climatic models are manipulated and converted into wind speed at 90 m from the surface. The study takes data from nine locations spread all over the globe with di erent characteristics. In order to draw a comparison between ve di erent time periods, ve Weibull distributions are depicted for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each emplacement. Thus, each the location is perfectly characterized and values for available power per area, hPd i/A (W m􀀀2), and wind speed at 90 m, hv90 i (m s􀀀1), are given. Variation within the 20 years' periods from XXI century (with the same reference period 1970-2005) of these variables are calculated in percentile for each location. The study shows that the variation of wind resource does exist but it is not extremely relevant (usually its order is not higher than 1%) and thus, it does not a ect the viability of an already constructed wind farm (it will not become obsolete). However, some limitations are found due to the methodology carried out. Regional models should have been used instead in order to have a better resolution of the location plus more exact wind speed values. Extreme phenomena are not studied in here therefore, gusts of wind are not considered even though they are highly important. Their occurrence can increase because of climate change and it can endanger wind turbines availability and the whole wind farm if constructed