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Title: EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0
Author: Poedts, Stefaan
Lani, Andrea
Scolini, Camilla
Verbeke, Christine
Wijsen, Nicolas
Lapenta, Giovanni
Laperre, Brecht
Millas, Dimitrios
Innocenti, Maria Elena
Chané, Emmanuel
Baratashvili, Tinatin
Samara, Evangelia
Van der Linden, Ronald
Rodriguez, Luciano
Vanlommel, Petra
Vainio, Rami
Afanasiev, Alexandr
Kilpua, Emilia
Pomoell, Jens
Sarkar, Ranadeep
Aran i Sensat, Maria dels Àngels
Sanahuja, Blai
Paredes i Poy, Josep Maria
Clarke, Ellen
Thomson, Alan
Rouilard, Alexis
Pinto, Rui F.
Marchaudon, Aurélie
Blelly, Pierre Louis
Gorce, Blandine
Plotnikov, Illya
Kouloumvakos, Athanasis
Heber, Bernd
Herbst, Konstantin
Kochanov, Andrey
Raeder, Joachim
Depauw, Jan
Keywords: Astrofísica
Issue Date: 13-Nov-2020
Publisher: EDP Sciences
Abstract: Aims: This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods: We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results: The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.
Note: Reproducció del document publicat a:
It is part of: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2020, vol. 10, num. 57
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ISSN: 2115-7251
Appears in Collections:Publicacions de projectes de recerca finançats per la UE
Articles publicats en revistes (Física Quàntica i Astrofísica)

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