Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/183293
Title: Predictive model for atrial fibrillation in hypertensive diabetic patients
Author: Abellana Sangrà, Rosa Mari
González Loyola, Felipe
Verdú Rotellar, Jose Maria
Bustamante, Alejandro
Palà, Elena
Clua Espuny, Josep Lluís
Montaner, Joan
Pedrote, Alonso
Val García, Jose Luís del
Ribas Segui, Domingo
Muñoz, Miguel Ángel
Keywords: Avaluació del risc per la salut
Fibril·lació auricular
Health risk assessment
Atrial fibrillation
Issue Date: Dec-2021
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Abstract: Background: Several scores to identify patients at high risk of suffering atrial fibrillation have been developed. Their applicability in hypertensive diabetic patients, however, remains uncertain. Our aim is to develop and validate a diagnostic predictive model to calculate the risk of developing atrial fibrillation at five years in a hypertensive diabetic population. Methods: The derivation cohort consisted of patients with both hypertension and diabetes attended in any of the 52 primary healthcare centres of Barcelona; the validation cohort came from the 11 primary healthcare centres of Terres de l'Ebre (Catalonia South) from January 2013 to December 2017. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with the development of atrial fibrillation. The overall performance, discrimination and calibration of the model were carried out. Results: The derivation data set comprised 54 575 patients. The atrial fibrillation rate incidence was 15.3 per 1000 person/year. A 5-year predictive model included age, male gender, overweight, heart failure, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, chronic kidney disease, number of antihypertensive drugs, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, thromboembolism, stroke and previous history of myocardial infarction. The discrimination of the model was good (c-index = 0.692; 95% confidence interval, 0.684-0.700), and calibration was adequate. In the validation cohort, the discrimination was lower (c-index = 0.670). Conclusions: The model accurately predicts future atrial fibrillation in a population with both diabetes and hypertension. Early detection allows the prevention of possible complications arising from this disease.
Note: Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.13633
It is part of: European Journal of Clinical Investigation, 2021, vol. 51, num. 12, p. e13633
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/183293
Related resource: https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.13633
ISSN: 0014-2972
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Fonaments Clínics)

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