Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence

Abstract

Economic uncertainty is a driver of the business cycle. Its leading properties make it a key advanced indicator to assess the impact of socioeconomic factors on suicide for prevention purposes. This paper evaluates the effect of economic uncertainty on suicide rates worldwide. Uncertainty is gauged by a global economic policy uncertainty index. Suicide rates from 183 countries between 2000 and 2019 are matched to annual economic uncertainty, controlling for unemployment and economic growth in a fixed-effects panel model. Overall, the analysis suggests that increases in lagged economic uncertainty, as well as in unemployment and economic growth, may lead to an increased risk of suicide. When replicating the experiment for different regions of the world, the greatest impact of an increase in economic uncertainty can be found in Africa and the Middle East. Given the anticipatory nature of economic uncertainty regarding the evolution of economies, and its relationship with suicide rates, the results highlight the usefulness of uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of periods of increased suicide risk and the design of suicide prevention strategies.