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Title: | What is at stake without high-stakes exams? Students' evaluation and admission to college at the time of COVID-19 |
Author: | Arenas Jal, Andreu Calsamiglia, Caterina Loviglio, Annalisa |
Keywords: | COVID-19 Avaluació educativa Proves d'accés a la universitat Anàlisi de regressió COVID-19 Educational evaluation Entrance examinations for universities Regression analysis |
Issue Date: | 1-Aug-2021 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Abstract: | The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 inhibited face-to-face education and constrained exam taking. In many countries worldwide, high-stakes exams happening at the end of the school year determine college admissions. This paper investigates the impact of using historical data of school and high-stakes exams results to train a model to predict high-stakes exams given the available data in the Spring. The most transparent and accurate model turns out to be a linear regression model with high school GPA as the main predictor. Further analysis of the predictions reflect how high-stakes exams relate to GPA in high school for different subgroups in the population. Predicted scores slightly advantage females and low SES individuals, who perform relatively worse in high-stakes exams than in high school. Our preferred model accounts for about 50% of the out-of-sample variation in the high-stakes exam. On average, the student rank using predicted scores differs from the actual rank by almost 17 percentiles. This suggests that either high-stakes exams capture individual skills that are not measured by high school grades or that high-stakes exams are a noisy measure of the same skill. |
Note: | Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102143 |
It is part of: | Economics of Education Review, 2021, vol. 83, num. 102143 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/186209 |
Related resource: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102143 |
ISSN: | 0272-7757 |
Appears in Collections: | Articles publicats en revistes (Economia) |
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Document embargat fins el 1-8-2024
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