Effect of population density in aging societies and severity of motor vehicle crash injuries: the case of Spain

Abstract

The concentration of population in cities and processes of rural depopulation coupled with the generational shift to older societies represent new challenges in road safety. Here, we examine the severity of injuries suffered by the occupants of motor vehicles involved in a crash based on the population density of the area in which the crash occurs, the driver’s age and the density of their place of residence. We conduct the study in Spain, a country with one of the highest levels of elderly population concentrated in rural areas in Europe. Relational methods are used to match Eurostat’s urbanization classifications with the accident database of Spain’s Directorate General of Traffic so as to correlate each crash with the population density of the place where it occurred. A set of generalized linear models with random effects is fitted to analyze the relationship between population density and the bodily injury severity of the occupants of the vehicle(s) involved in a crash, measuring the effect of drivers’ relocation and aging by geographical area. Independence of injury severity and the degree of urbanization was rejected at the 5% significance level. While 53.8% of the Spanish population is living in densely populated areas and only 13.5% in rural areas, the latter concentrates most crashes with fatalities: 2.3 times more than in urban areas (43.5 and 18.6%, respectively). Drivers living in rural areas are more likely to be associated with serious or fatal injuries when involved in a crash in urban and intermediate areas. Moreover, drivers aged over 75 are significantly more likely to be associated with serious and fatal injuries, especially when the crash occurred in urban areas. Recent research alerts on the implications for rural (often elderly) residents of concentrating public services, particularly healthcare, in densely populated areas. Our study shows that motor crashes in more densely populated areas are also a rural health concern. Policy decision-makers need to address this issue to reduce the number of victims and their bodily injury severity.