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Title: The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study
Author: Alemany Leira, Ramon
Alcañiz, Manuela
Guillén, Montserrat
Keywords: Anàlisi d'error (Matemàtica)
Previsió dels negocis
Estadística matemàtica
Error analysis (Mathematics)
Business forecasting
Mathematical statistics
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: Springer Verlag
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.
Note: Versió postprint del document publicat a: 10.1007/978-3-642-30457-6_27
It is part of: Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, 2012, vol. 286, p. 413-422
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ISSN: 1434-9922
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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