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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Clavería González, Óscar | - |
dc.contributor.author | Monte Moreno, Enric | - |
dc.contributor.author | Torra Porras, Salvador | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-09-30T11:21:36Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2014-09-30T11:21:36Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2014-1254 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/57831 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper aims to compare the performance of different Artificial Neural Networks techniques for tourist demand forecasting. We test the forecasting accuracy of three different types of architectures: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We also evaluate the effect of the memory by repeating the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags introduced. We used tourist arrivals from all the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2012. We find that multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks, being the radial basis function architecture the one providing the best forecasts when no additional lags are incorporated. These results indicate the potential existence of instabilities when using dynamic networks for forecasting purposes. We also find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long term forecasting. | - |
dc.format.extent | 23 p. | - |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
dc.language.iso | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Universitat de Barcelona. Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública | - |
dc.relation.isformatof | Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2013/201321.pdf | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | IREA – Working Papers, 2013, IR13/21 | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | AQR – Working Papers, 2013, AQR13/13 | - |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | [WP E-AQR13/13] | - |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | [WP E-IR13/21] | - |
dc.rights | cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Clavería González et al., 2013 | - |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ | - |
dc.source | Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA)) | - |
dc.subject.classification | Previsió econòmica | - |
dc.subject.classification | Turisme | - |
dc.subject.classification | Desenvolupament econòmic | - |
dc.subject.other | Economic forecasting | - |
dc.subject.other | Tourism | - |
dc.subject.other | Economic development | - |
dc.title | Tourism demand forecasting with different neural networks models | eng |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper | - |
dc.date.updated | 2014-09-30T11:21:36Z | - |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | - |
Appears in Collections: | AQR (Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional) – Working Papers Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA)) Documents de treball / Informes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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IR13-021_Claveria.pdf | 617.04 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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