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Title: | Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time |
Author: | Carabotta, Laura Claeys, Peter |
Keywords: | Macroeconomia Dèficit públic Previsió econòmica Cicles econòmics Macroeconomics Budget deficits Economic forecasting Business cycles |
Issue Date: | 2015 |
Publisher: | Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa |
Series/Report no: | [WP E-Eco15/320] |
Abstract: | Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model. |
Note: | Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ub.edu/ubeconomics/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/320WEB2.pdf |
It is part of: | UB Economics – Working Papers, 2015, E15/320 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700 |
ISSN: | 1136-8365 |
Appears in Collections: | UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE] Documents de treball / Informes (Economia) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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E15-320_Carabotta-Claeys.pdf | 1.46 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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