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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/215513
ENSO in a warming climate: the relative Niño 3.4 index
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The traditional Ni˜no 3.4 index has been losing precision and credibility in recent years, fundamentally due to the increase in global warming. El Ni˜no 2023/24 was expected to be one of the strongest ones, however it resulted to be weaker. This error in the prediction could be associated with the use of the traditional Ni˜no 3.4 index, which does not take global warming into account.
Therefore, this thesis has assessed the advantages of using the relative Ni˜no 3.4 index. Observational data using winter means (DJF) over 1950-2024 have been employed. The results suggested that it is increasingly necessary to rely more on the relative index rather than the traditional one. As shown in the study, the former takes into account and reduces the influence of global warming, which was probably the main reason of the incorrect forecast
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Treballs Finals de Grau de Física, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2024, Tutors: Mario Rodrigo, Javier García Serrano
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CAMPINS SASTRE, Lluc. ENSO in a warming climate: the relative Niño 3.4 index. [consulted: 6 of October of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/215513