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Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions
                Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National
                Strategy Planning.

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BACKGROUND content: In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world's population of                individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis.
We present the investment case for the scale-up of a             comprehensive package of HBV interventions. METHODS content: A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. RESULTS content: Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related                 cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by                2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral                 treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested.                 CONCLUSIONS content: Increases in HBV-related deaths for the                 next few decades pose a major public health threat in China.               Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.

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Clinical Infectious Diseases , 2020 , vol. , num. , p. 0

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Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

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Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions
                Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National
                Strategy Planning.