# name
Risk Factors for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Tanzania, 2001-2006

# metadata.dc.description.abstract[].value
We developed a model to quantify the effect of factors
                influencing the spatio-temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth
                disease (FMD) in Tanzania. The land area of Tanzania was divided
                into a regular grid of 20 km x 20 km cells and separate grids
                constructed for each of the 12-month periods between 2001 and
                2006. For each year, a cell was classified as either FMD
                positive or negative dependent on an outbreak being recorded in
                any settlement within the cell boundaries. A Bayesian
                mixed-effects spatial model was developed to assess the
                association between the risk of FMD occurrence and distance to
                main roads, railway lines, wildlife parks, international borders
                and cattle density. Increases in the distance to main roads
                decreased the risk of FMD every year from 2001 to 2006 (ORs
                ranged from 0.43 to 0.97). Increases in the distance to railway
                lines and international borders were, in general, associated
                with a decreased risk of FMD (ORs ranged from 0.85 to 0.99).
                Increases in the distance from a national park decreased the
                risk of FMD in 2001 (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.68-0.93) but had the
                opposite effect in 2004 (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.12). Cattle
                population density was, in general, positively associated with
                the risk of FMD (ORs ranged from 1.01 to 1.30). The spatial
                distribution of high-risk areas was variable and corresponded to
                endemic (2001, 2002 and 2005) and epidemic (2003, 2004 and 2006)
                phases. Roads played a dominant role in both epidemiological
                situations; we hypothesize that roads are the main driver of FMD
                expansion in Tanzania. Our results suggest that FMD occurrence
                in Tanzania is more related to animal movement and human
                activity via communication networks than transboundary movements
                or contact with wildlife.

# metadata.dc.relation.isformatof[].value
Versió postprint del document publicat a:
                http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/tbed.12087

# metadata.dc.relation.ispartof[].value
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2015, vol. 62, num. 2, p.
                127-136

# metadata.dc.source[].value
Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

# metadata.dc.title[].value
Risk Factors for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Tanzania, 2001-2006