# name
Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity,
                mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a
                systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

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GBD 2016 Diarrhoeal Disease Collaborators

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Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date
analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990–2016
and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.
Methods: We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide
range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea
incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence,
and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and
episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach.
Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk
and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty.
Findings: In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655944 deaths, 95% uncertainty
interval [UI] 1244 073–2366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years
(446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger
than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292737). Childhood
wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea,
responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in
children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert
one death from diarrhoea.
Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by
decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden
among adults older than 70 years requires attention.

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Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

# metadata.dc.title[].value
Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity,
                mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a
                systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016