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Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy

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Nowadays, fiscal forecasts are a centerpiece of macroeconomic policy decisions, particularly in highly indebted European Union countries such as Italy. The Stability and Convergence Programs and the new Fiscal Compact seem to have improved fiscal responsibility, but have they facilitated a greater accuracy of fiscal forecasters? We have compiled a new data set of fiscal forecasts for Italy, covering the last two decades 1992-2014, and checked whether the improvement in fiscal responsibility has reduced forecast errors. Neither the improvement in fiscal responsibility nor the political reforms reduced the optimistic bias in the fiscal projections of public and private forecasters.

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International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33, num. 3, p. 694-706

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Articles publicats en revistes  (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy