# name
The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding
                mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk

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Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito
                population dynamics; understanding its central role is important
                for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to
                temperature fluctuations, though important across the life
                history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used
                stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential
                equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of
                diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito
                population dynamics. The model allows exploration of
                temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure,
                giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria
                parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age
                structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes
                varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics
                of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the
                first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating
                temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed
                observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a
                range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and
                precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season
                in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers
                of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift
                in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both
                mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for
                understanding current and future malaria risk.

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Reproducció del document publicat a:
                http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160969

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Royal Society Open Science, 2017, vol. 4, num. 3, p. 160969

# metadata.dc.source[].value
Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

# metadata.dc.title[].value
The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding
                mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk