# name
Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case

# metadata.dc.description.abstract[].value
The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model.

# metadata.dc.rights[].value
cc-by (c) Fernández Fontelo, Amanda et al., 2020

# metadata.dc.source[].value
Articles publicats en revistes  (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

# metadata.dc.title[].value
Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case