# name
Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis
                within Spanish cattle herds

# metadata.dc.description.abstract[].value
In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine
                tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some
                areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and
                control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the
                dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop
                new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected
                herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already
                infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to
                simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with
                epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous
                work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate
                Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd
                transmission potential Number" (Rh), i.e. the average number of
                secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced
                into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios
                depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values
                obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the
                transmission coefficient (beta), 0.014 newly infected animals
                per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the
                rate at which infected individuals become infectious (alpha),
                0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97days), and for
                the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the
                skin test (alpha1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of
                12days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the
                results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of
                those parameters (in particular beta and alpha) among the 22
                herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh
                was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1year, and to
                2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years,
                respectively.

# metadata.dc.relation.isformatof[].value
Reproducció del document publicat a:
                http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003

# metadata.dc.source[].value
Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

# metadata.dc.title[].value
Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis
                within Spanish cattle herds