# name
Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El
                Nino: Lessons learned

# metadata.dc.description.abstract[].value
A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the
                El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in
                Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the
                winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the
                tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal
                outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from August to
                November. Climate studies have indicated a role of regional
                precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance
                effect. Motivated by this previous evidence, we took advantage
                of the strong 2015-2016 El Nino event to evaluate the
                predictability of cholera dynamics for the city in recent times
                based on two transmission models that incorporate SST anomalies
                and are fitted to the earlier surveillance records starting in
                1995. We implemented a mechanistic temporal model that
                incorporates both epidemiological processes and the effect of
                ENSO, as well as a previously published statistical model that
                resolves space at the level of districts (thanas). Prediction
                accuracy was evaluated with "out-of-fit" data from the same
                surveillance efforts (post 2008 and 2010 for the two models
                respectively), by comparing the total number of cholera cases
                observed for the season to those predicted by model simulations
                eight to twelve months ahead, starting in January each year.
                Although forecasts were accurate for the low cholera risk
                observed for the years preceding the 2015-2016 El Nino, the
                models also predicted a high probability of observing a large
                outbreak in fall 2016. Observed cholera cases up to Oct 2016 did
                not show evidence of an anomalous season. We discuss these
                predictions in the context of regional and local climate
                conditions, which show that despite positive regional rainfall
                anomalies, rainfall and inundation in Dhaka remained low.
                Possible explanations for these patterns are given together with
                future implications for cholera dynamics and directions to
                improve their prediction for the city.

# metadata.dc.relation.isformatof[].value
Reproducció del document publicat a:
                http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172355

# metadata.dc.source[].value
Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

# metadata.dc.title[].value
Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El
                Nino: Lessons learned