# name
Expected, Unexpected, Good and Bad Uncertainty

# metadata.dc.description.abstract[].value
By distinguishing between four general notions of uncertainty (good expected, bad-expected, good-unexpected, bad-unexpected) within a common and simple framework, we show that it is bad-unexpected  uncertainty shocks that generate a negative reaction of macroeconomic  variables (such as investment and consumption), and asset prices. Other  notions of uncertainty might produce even positive responses in the  macroeconomy. We also show that small uncertainty shocks might have  larger impacts on economic activity and financial markets than bigger shocks  between one to three years after its realization. We explore the time and  magnitude of uncertainty shocks by means of a novel distributed lag  nonlinear model. Our results help to elucidate the real and complex nature of  uncertainty, which can be both a backward or forward-looking expected or  unexpected event, with markedly different consequences for the economy.  They have implications for policy making, asset pricing and risk  management.

# metadata.dc.publisher[].value
Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa

# metadata.dc.rights[].value
cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Chuliá Soler et al., 2019

# metadata.dc.source[].value
Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))

# metadata.dc.title[].value
Expected, Unexpected, Good and Bad Uncertainty