Berenguer, J. (Joaquín Berenguer Lapuerta)Borobia, Alberto M.Ryan, PabloRodríguez Baño, JesúsBellón, José M.Jarrín Vera, InmaculadaCarratalà, JordiPachón, JerónimoCarcas Sansuán, Antonio J.Yllescas, MaríaArribas, José RamónSmithson Amat, AlejandroCOVID-19 Spain Study GroupCOVID HULP Study Group2021-10-012021-10-012021-02-250040-6376https://hdl.handle.net/2445/180349Participants: Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. Interventions: Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Main outcome measures: 30-day mortality. Results: Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%). Conclusions: A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.10 p.application/pdfeng(c) BMJ Publishing Group, 2021COVID-19Teoria de la prediccióDiagnòsticCOVID-19Prediction theoryDiagnosisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article7082742021-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess33632764