Carabotta, LauraClaeys, Peter2015-06-022015-06-0220151136-8365https://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.30 p.application/pdfengcc-by-nc-nd, (c) Carabotta et al., 2015http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/MacroeconomiaDèficit públicPrevisió econòmicaCicles econòmicsMacroeconomicsBudget deficitsEconomic forecastingBusiness cyclesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper2015-06-02info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess