Turco, MarcoJerez, SoniaDoblas Reyes, Francisco JavierAghaKouchak, AmirLlasat Botija, María del CarmenProvenzale, A. (Antonello)2018-07-272018-07-272018-07-132041-1723https://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (~40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions.9 p.application/pdfengcc-by (c) Turco, Marco et al., 2018http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/esPrecipitacions (Meteorologia)Previsió del tempsClimaIncendis forestalsPrecipitations (Meteorology)Weather forecastingClimateForest firesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article6813712018-07-27info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess30006529