Alemany Leira, RamonAlcañiz, ManuelaGuillén, Montserrat2013-05-282013-05-2820121434-9922https://hdl.handle.net/2445/43821In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.10 p.application/pdfeng(c) Springer Verlag, 2012Anàlisi d'error (Matemàtica)Previsió dels negocisEnquestesEstadística matemàticaError analysis (Mathematics)Business forecastingSurveysMathematical statisticsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article6209402013-05-28info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess