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http://hdl.handle.net/2445/101764
Title: | Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain's regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model |
Author: | Clavería González, Óscar Monte Moreno, Enric Torra Porras, Salvador |
Keywords: | Turisme Anàlisi de regressió Processos gaussians Xarxes neuronals (Informàtica) Tourism Regression analysis Gaussian processes Neural networks (Computer science) |
Issue Date: | Aug-2016 |
Publisher: | Springer Verlag |
Abstract: | This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of a multi-layer perceptron neural network used as a benchmark. The results reveal that incorporating the connections between different markets in the modelling process may prove very useful to refine predictions at a regional level. |
Note: | Versió postprint del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7 |
It is part of: | Series-Journal Of The Spanish Economic Association, 2016, vol. 7, num. 3, p. 341-357 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/101764 |
Related resource: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7 |
ISSN: | 1869-4187 |
Appears in Collections: | Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada) |
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663733.pdf | 866.14 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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