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Title: Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
Author: Colmet-Daage, Antoine
Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ricci, Sophie
Llovel, Cecile
Borrell Estupina, Valerie
Quintana-Seguí, Pere
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Servat, Eric
Keywords: Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
Canvis climàtics
Precipitations (Meteorology)
Climatic changes
Issue Date: 25-Jan-2018
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Abstract: The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and Med-CORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981-2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.
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It is part of: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, vol. 22, num. 1, p. 673-687
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ISSN: 1027-5606
Appears in Collections:Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)
Articles publicats en revistes (Institut de Recerca de l'Aigua (IdRA))

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