Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971
Title: | Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions |
Author: | Turco, Marco Jerez, Sonia Doblas Reyes, Francisco Javier AghaKouchak, Amir Llasat Botija, María del Carmen Provenzale, A. (Antonello) |
Keywords: | Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Previsió del temps Clima Incendis forestals Precipitations (Meteorology) Weather forecasting Climate Forest fires |
Issue Date: | 13-Jul-2018 |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Abstract: | Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (~40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions. |
Note: | Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0 |
It is part of: | Nature Communications, 2018, vol. 9: 2718 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971 |
Related resource: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0 |
ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
Appears in Collections: | Articles publicats en revistes (Institut de Recerca de l'Aigua (IdRA)) Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada) |
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