Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/57513
Title: A multivariate neural network approach to tourism demand forecasting
Author: Clavería González, Óscar
Monte Moreno, Enric
Torra Porras, Salvador
Keywords: Previsió econòmica
Turisme
Desenvolupament econòmic
Xarxes neuronals (Informàtica)
Economic forecasting
Tourism
Economic development
Neural networks (Computer science)
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Universitat de Barcelona. Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública
Abstract: This study compares the performance of different Artificial Neural Networks models for tourist demand forecasting in a multiple - output framework. We test the forecasting accuracy of three different types of architectures : a multi - layer perceptron network, a radial basis function network and an Elman neural network. We use official statistical data of inbound international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain) from 2001 to 2012. By means of cointegration analysis we find that growth rates of tourist arrivals from all different countries share a common stochastic trend, which leads us to apply a multivariate out - of - sample forecasting comparison. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for each visitor market and for different forecasting horizons, we find that radial basis function models outperform multi - layer perceptron and Elman networks. We repeat the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags used for concatenation so as to evaluate the effect of the memory on the forecasting results, and we find no significant differences when additional lags are incorporated. These results reveal the suitability of hybrid models such as radial basis functions that combine supervised and unsupervised learning for economic forecasting with seasonal data.
Note: Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2014/201417.pdf
It is part of: IREA – Working Papers, 2014, IR14/017
AQR – Working Papers, 2014, AQR14/10
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/57513
ISSN: 2014-1254
Appears in Collections:Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))
Documents de treball / Informes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
AQR (Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional) – Working Papers

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