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http://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Carabotta, Laura | - |
dc.contributor.author | Claeys, Peter | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-06-02T12:20:13Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2015-06-02T12:20:13Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1136-8365 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model. | - |
dc.format.extent | 30 p. | - |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
dc.language.iso | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa | - |
dc.relation.isformatof | Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ub.edu/ubeconomics/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/320WEB2.pdf | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | UB Economics – Working Papers, 2015, E15/320 | - |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | [WP E-Eco15/320] | - |
dc.rights | cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Carabotta et al., 2015 | - |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ | - |
dc.source | UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE] | - |
dc.subject.classification | Macroeconomia | - |
dc.subject.classification | Dèficit públic | - |
dc.subject.classification | Previsió econòmica | - |
dc.subject.classification | Cicles econòmics | - |
dc.subject.other | Macroeconomics | - |
dc.subject.other | Budget deficits | - |
dc.subject.other | Economic forecasting | - |
dc.subject.other | Business cycles | - |
dc.title | Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time | - |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper | - |
dc.date.updated | 2015-06-02T12:20:13Z | - |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | - |
Appears in Collections: | UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE] Documents de treball / Informes (Economia) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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E15-320_Carabotta-Claeys.pdf | 1.46 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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