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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Clavería González, Óscar | - |
dc.contributor.author | Monte Moreno, Enric | - |
dc.contributor.author | Torra Porras, Salvador | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-07-17T22:34:40Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-07-17T22:34:40Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2022-06-30 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2076-3417 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/187801 | - |
dc.description.abstract | We apply a soft computing method to generate country-specific economic sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates for 19 European economies. First, genetic programming is used to evolve business and consumer economic expectations to derive sentiment indicators for each country. To assess the performance of the proposed indicators, we first design a nowcasting experiment in which we recursively generate estimates of GDP at the end of each quarter, using the latest business and consumer survey data available. Second, we design a forecasting exercise in which we iteratively re-compute the sentiment indicators in each out-of-sample period. When evaluating the accuracy of the predictions obtained for different forecast horizons, we find that the evolved sentiment indicators outperform the time-series models used as a benchmark. These results show the potential of the proposed approach for prediction purpose | - |
dc.format.extent | 19 p. | - |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
dc.language.iso | eng | - |
dc.publisher | MDPI | - |
dc.relation.isformatof | Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.3390/app12136661 | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Applied Sciences, 2022, vol. 12(13), num. 6661, p. 1-19 | - |
dc.relation.uri | https://doi.org/10.3390/app12136661 | - |
dc.rights | cc-by (c) Clavería González, Óscar et al., 2022 | - |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | - |
dc.source | Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada) | - |
dc.subject.classification | Algorismes genètics | - |
dc.subject.classification | Indicadors socials | - |
dc.subject.classification | Desenvolupament econòmic | - |
dc.subject.classification | Enquestes | - |
dc.subject.other | Genetic algorithms | - |
dc.subject.other | Social indicators | - |
dc.subject.other | Economic development | - |
dc.subject.other | Surveys | - |
dc.title | A Genetic Programming Approach for Economic Forecasting with Survey Expectations | - |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | - |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | - |
dc.identifier.idgrec | 723985 | - |
dc.date.updated | 2022-07-17T22:34:40Z | - |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | - |
Appears in Collections: | Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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723985.pdf | 2.06 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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