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http://hdl.handle.net/2445/187801
Title: | A Genetic Programming Approach for Economic Forecasting with Survey Expectations |
Author: | Clavería González, Óscar Monte Moreno, Enric Torra Porras, Salvador |
Keywords: | Algorismes genètics Indicadors socials Desenvolupament econòmic Enquestes Genetic algorithms Social indicators Economic development Surveys |
Issue Date: | 30-Jun-2022 |
Publisher: | MDPI |
Abstract: | We apply a soft computing method to generate country-specific economic sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates for 19 European economies. First, genetic programming is used to evolve business and consumer economic expectations to derive sentiment indicators for each country. To assess the performance of the proposed indicators, we first design a nowcasting experiment in which we recursively generate estimates of GDP at the end of each quarter, using the latest business and consumer survey data available. Second, we design a forecasting exercise in which we iteratively re-compute the sentiment indicators in each out-of-sample period. When evaluating the accuracy of the predictions obtained for different forecast horizons, we find that the evolved sentiment indicators outperform the time-series models used as a benchmark. These results show the potential of the proposed approach for prediction purpose |
Note: | Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.3390/app12136661 |
It is part of: | Applied Sciences, 2022, vol. 12(13), num. 6661, p. 1-19 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2445/187801 |
Related resource: | https://doi.org/10.3390/app12136661 |
ISSN: | 2076-3417 |
Appears in Collections: | Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada) |
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