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https://hdl.handle.net/2445/223188| Title: | Surface temperature analysis: variability and trends |
| Author: | Pagès Ticó, Marcel |
| Director/Tutor: | Sola Salvatierra, Yolanda |
| Keywords: | Canvi climàtic Estadística bayesiana Treballs de fi de grau Climatic change Bayesian statistical decision Bachelor's theses |
| Issue Date: | Jun-2025 |
| Abstract: | This work analyses global surface temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2024 using the GISS database. ARIMA and Bayesian Structural Time Series models are employed to make predictions. Both approaches reveal a strong warming trend predicting, respectively, an average annual increase of 0.021 K and 0.031 K until 2060. Higher warming over land and, especially in the Bayesian model, Arctic amplification are forecasted. These findings align with IPCC projections and underscore the urgency of climate mitigation strategies |
| Note: | Treballs Finals de Grau de Física, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2025, Tutora: Yolanda Sola Salvatierra |
| URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/223188 |
| Appears in Collections: | Treballs Finals de Grau (TFG) - Física |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGÉS TICÓ MARCEL-R.pdf | 18.57 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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