Goal or Foul? Unravelling the Link between the 2006 FIFA World Cup and Criminal Activity in German Cities

Abstract

Sport events are seen as a method for governments and organizations to obtain economic, employment, and tourist benefits while also enhancing city infrastructure. Scholars, on the other hand, doubt the real advantages, claiming that they are frequently inflated to justify high expenditures. Little study has been conducted on the negative consequences, particularly on criminal reactions, of large-scale events. This research explores the aftermaths of the 2006 FIFA World Cup in Germany, concentrating on crime rates in the host cities. Using a two-way fixed effects model combined with a matching methodology, the study examines the influence of the World Cup on crime rates in 2006, accounting for disparities across cities while considering heterogeneous responses for the country's historical East-West divide and population density. When crime statistics in 2006 are compared to those three years prior to the tournament, it is discovered that, in the short term, hosting the World Cup had no effect on crime, robbery, or burglary. When checking for the heterogeneity of the effect, however, statistically significant findings for two of the three outcome variables are discovered.