Carregant...
Fitxers
Tipus de document
ArticleVersió
Versió publicadaData de publicació
Llicència de publicació
Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/183271
Risk stratification in heart failure decompensation in the community: HEFESTOS score
Títol de la revista
Director/Tutor
ISSN de la revista
Títol del volum
Recurs relacionat
Resum
Aims: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings. Methods and results: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5-20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one. Conclusions: The HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode.
Matèries (anglès)
Citació
Citació
VERDÚ ROTELLAR, Jose maria, ABELLANA SANGRÀ, Rosa mari, VAILLANT-ROUSSEL, Helene, GRIL JEVSEK, Lea, ASSENOVA, Radost, KASUBA LAZIC, Djurdjica, TORSZA, Peter, GLYNN, Liam george, LINGNER, Heidrun, DEMURTAS, Jacopo, THULESIUS, Hans, MUÑOZ PÉREZ, Miguel ángel, HEFESTOS group. Risk stratification in heart failure decompensation in the community: HEFESTOS score. _ESC Heart Failure_. 2021. Vol. 9, núm. 1, pàgs. 606-613. [consulta: 25 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 2055-5822. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/183271]