The effect of tram expansion on housing prices in Greater Manchester

Abstract

This paper investigates how proximity to tram infrastructure affects housing prices in Greater Manchester using a transaction-level dataset containing over 25,000 geocoded housing property sales between 1995 and 2024. To achieve this, the research employs a staggered difference-in-differences design with an event study specification. This approach compares price changes for houses located within 1,000 meters of new tram stops (treated group) against those situated between 1,000 and 1,500 meters away (control group), examining differences over a ten-year window surrounding each tram stop opening. The findings indicate statistically insignificant long-term effects, aside from a brief, small decline in prices one year after opening. Robustness checks using alternative model specifications and additional property-level controls further support these results. Overall, the analysis of this paper suggests that tram expansions have not systematically increased residential property values, likely due to the polycentric urban structure and diverse neighbourhood characteristics of Greater Manchester.